AFC South win totals, predictions: Titans, Colts near double-digit wins, Texans hold NFL’s lowest O/U line

We’re within the thick of the offseason program with OTAs and necessary minicamps set to unfold all through the league over the following few weeks. Earlier than it, the regular-season opener between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Payments will likely be right here after which it is off the races to Tremendous Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. 

To cross the time earlier than all that motion will get rolling, sportsbooks have begun releasing Over/Beneath win complete props for every crew because of the NFL releasing the complete 2022 schedule final month. Under, we’ll particularly take a look at the AFC South groups, spotlight their win complete odds, and provides our early leans. 

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

Win complete projection: 9.5 (Over +110, Beneath -130)

The largest query surrounding Tennessee is what degree of manufacturing they’re going to get from Ryan Tannehill. Final yr, the veteran quarterback appeared to regress in his third season with the Titans and had extra interceptions in 2021 than his earlier two campaigns with the crew mixed. Whereas the Titans had been capable of earn the No. 1 seed within the AFC with Tannehill underneath middle final season, he was additionally their undoing in a Divisional Spherical loss to the Cincinnati Bengals the place he threw three interceptions. 

If Tannehill continues on this downward trajectory, that’ll actually muddy the waters for this win complete prop and will even pressure a change underneath middle with rookie quarterback Malik Willis now looming within the background. 

Even with Tannehill’s standing a serious query, this schedule is not for the faint of coronary heart. That stated, 4 divisional video games towards the Texans and Jaguars bake in 4 wins for Tennessee. If they will clear up towards different inferior opponents just like the Giants in Week 1 and at Washington in Week 5, you are sitting at six wins. Should you account for a break up with Indy, you are at seven and now knocking on the door. 

Nonetheless, the remainder of their opponents will likely be troublesome, significantly throughout the stretch between Week 9 and Week 13. Throughout that run, they’re going to face the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis, the Broncos, the Packers in Inexperienced Bay, the Bengals, and Eagles in Philly. They seemingly will not be favored in both of these highway video games and will even discover themselves residence canines if Denver lives as much as the hype with Russell Wilson and the Bengals proceed to appear like the crew that went to the Tremendous Bowl final yr. In the event that they go underneath .500 over that stretch, it would be powerful to see them with double-digit wins. 

The decide: Beneath 9.5 wins (-130)

Win complete projection: 9.5 (Over -135, Beneath +115)

But once more, the Colts have a brand new quarterback. This offseason, Indy determined to tug the plug on the Carson Wentz experiment and located an improve by buying and selling for former Falcons star Matt Ryan. He ought to deliver extra stability underneath middle, making the Colts the present betting favourite to win the division. Not solely did the Colts herald Ryan, however they helped add to a protection that already was contained in the top-10 in DVOA final season by signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore and buying and selling for pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue. 

That improved roster is only one motive why the Over is a good wager right here with Indy. In addition they have the third-easiest schedule within the NFL based mostly on projected win totals and the sixth-easiest based mostly on their win proportion in 2021. 

The Colts have a delicate touchdown spot to start the yr, going through the Texans and Jaguars on the highway, however come residence to face Kansas Metropolis. Whereas going through groups just like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Chargers is not precisely a stroll within the park, they do all come at residence, which is a pleasant benefit for Indy. 

The decide: Over 9.5 wins (-135)

Houston Texans

Win complete projection: 4.5 (Over +100, Beneath -120)

The Houston Texans at present have the bottom win complete prop all through the NFL. Whereas a brand new head coach is operating the present in Lovie Smith, they are going to be sticking with quarterback Davis Mills as he enters Yr 2. If he can proceed to take a leap after a promising rookie season, that might result in Houston being extra aggressive on a weekly foundation. 

Whereas the Texans could possibly shock of us at occasions subsequent yr, their highway is not simple as they’ve the fifth-hardest schedule based mostly on their opponents’ win complete projections. Even a few of their extra winnable video games subsequent yr are on the highway: at Bears in Week three and at Giants in Week 10. For Houston to see 5 extra wins, they’d seemingly have to care for these video games, beat the Commanders at residence in Week 11 and sweep the Jaguars within the division. Asking a crew just like the Texans to tug out three highway wins simply to get within the dialog of this complete could also be too huge of an ask.

The decide: Beneath 4.5 wins (-135)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win complete projection: 6.5 (Over +105, Beneath -125)

Going from the dumpster hearth that was the City Meyer period to new head coach Doug Pederson will do wonders for the Jaguars. The turmoil and out of doors noise sparked by Meyer stunted the expansion of the roster, significantly franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. With a Tremendous Bowl-winning coach now on the helm, it needs to be a extra well-run operation in Jacksonville. That is additionally not mentioning the spending spree they simply concluded in free company and by bringing in defensive finish and prime decide Travon Walker together with linebacker Devin Lloyd within the first spherical. So, the roster and training workers needs to be a lot improved in 2022 together with common enchancment by the gamers already in-house. 

Will all that translate to the Jags going over six wins this yr? Properly, they do have a reasonably simple schedule in 2022. They personal the 12th-easiest schedule by way of opponent win complete projections and the seventh-easiest when their opponents’ mixed win proportion from 2021. 

For Jacksonville to realistically hit this over, they’d want to comb the Texans, beat the Commanders within the opener on the highway, beat the Giants at residence in Week 7, and earn highway wins towards the Lions (Week 13) and Jets (Week 16). That will get them to 6 wins and then you definitely’d should financial institution on an upset some place else on the schedule or a break up towards both Tennessee or Indianapolis throughout the division. 

If Lawrence takes a leap in Yr 2 and appears extra just like the generational quarterback he was billed as coming into the league, there’s worth within the Over at plus cash. 

The decide: Over 6.5 wins (+105) 

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