(The Center Square) – Port of Seattle Commission President Ryan Calkins said that he is concerned that a massive spike in the cost of maritime fuel could reduce freight shipments beyond declines that have occurred due the Trump administration’s tariffs.
“Marine gas is sold by the ton, and it’s gone from approximately $700 per ton to $1,200 per ton between Friday and Tuesday,” he said, due to Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-led, joint military campaign with Israel against Iran.
Calkins made his comments at a Tuesday Trade Summit sponsored by the Washington Council on International Trade.
Port imports were down by more than 20% in 2025 compared to the previous year, Port of Seattle statistics show.
Calkins said those numbers dropped several percentage points more in the first several months of 2026.
He told The Center Square that he is worried the trend will continue if the conflict between the U.S and Iran continues to escalate, including the blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime waterway located between Iran and Oman.
“We were thinking things were going to stabilize, but if the hostilities continue to result in energy price spikes that could kick us into recession,” he said. “In which case, people are going to be buying less stuff, reducing imports to the port. The port is a barometer of the economy.”
A conference panel at the trade summit also focused on U.S.-Canadian trade relations.
The U.S. is imposing significant tariffs on Canadian goods, including a 35% tariff on some products.
“I don’t think we can sugarcoat what transpired in the last year,” said Craig Weichel, Canada’s counsel general to Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Alaska. “A lot of Canadians were genuinely shocked. I know I was.”
But Weichel said 85% to 90% of the trade between the U.S. and Canada is till flowing tariff-free because of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaced NAFTA on July 1, 2020. The modernized trade deal is designed to boost North American manufacturing, agriculture and digital commerce.
That agreement goes through a mandatory review in July by all three countries. The United States or Canada or Mexico could end the agreement with six months’ notice.
“There is a sense of betrayal,” said Weichel of Trump. “But also, genuine fear about what this administration might be capable of.”
The White House didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Among the products exempt from the tariffs are apples, pears and cherries grown in Washington, said another panel participant, Riley Bushue, vice president of the Northwest Horticultural Council. Those Washington-grown fruits make up a large percentage of the produce some farmers in Washington sell in Canada, he said.
