Brewers vs. Pirates odds, line, prediction: 2022 MLB picks, Thursday, April 28 best bets from proven model

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a three-game set on Thursday. PNC Park hosts the matchup with an early afternoon first pitch on getaway day. Milwaukee won the first two games of the series on the road, improving to 12-7 overall. Pittsburgh is 8-10 overall following three losses in the last four games. 

First pitch is at 12:35 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a -175 favorite on the money line, while the Over-Under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 7.5 in the latest Brewers vs. Pirates odds. Before you make any Brewers vs. Pirates picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a sizzling start to the 2022 season. It’s on a 25-11 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through three weeks, returning almost $1,100 for $100 players. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Brewers vs. Pirates, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Brewers vs. Pirates:

  • Brewers vs. Pirates money line: Brewers -175, Pirates +155 
  • Brewers vs. Pirates over-under: 7.5 runs 
  • Brewers vs. Pirates run line: Brewers -1.5 
  • MIL: The Brewers are 7-4 on the road 
  • PIT: The Pirates are 4-4 at home

Featured Game | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Why you should back the Brewers

The Brewers have a couple of offensive strengths this season, ranking in the top five of the National League in generating stolen bases (11) and avoiding double plays (11). Milwaukee has a stout starting pitcher in Freddy Peralta, who checks a lot of boxes. Peralta was an All-Star in 2021, posting a 2.81 ERA across 144.1 innings of work. Peralta averaged 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings and more than 3.4 strikeouts for every walk. From there, opponents had a .561 OPS against Peralta last season, and that included a .584 OPS by right-handed batters and a .542 OPS by left-handed batters. 

Milwaukee’s bullpen is excellent, posting top-tier marks in ERA (3.25), strikeout rate (9.87 K/9), and ground ball rate (48.1 percent). The Brewers are also facing a Pirates team with the fewest home runs (11) in the National League and strongly below-average marks in runs scored, strikeout rate, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Why you should back the Pirates

The Pirates have key potential advantages in certain areas. Pittsburgh owns an impressive 9.5 percent walk rate this season, and Milwaukee is below-average on offense. The Brewers rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored with 71, and Milwaukee has ugly figures in batting average (.207), on-base percentage (.281), and slugging percentage (.332) in 2022. 

Pittsburgh’s bullpen is very strong, ranking in the top five of the NL in wins above replacement across 85.2 innings. Pirates relievers have nearly a strikeout per inning, and Pittsburgh also has a veteran starter on the hill. Jose Quintana has a 3.86 ERA in three starts this season, and the former All-Star has a 3.84 ERA in his career. That includes a devastating arsenal against left-handed hitters, with southpaws posting a hideous .662 OPS against Quintana in his lengthy MLB career.

How to make Brewers vs. Pirates picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the run total, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Brewers vs. Pirates? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Brewers vs. Pirates you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.  


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