Bucks vs. Suns odds, line, best bets: 2021 NBA Finals picks, predictions from expert on 58-33 run

The Milwaukee Bucks travel west to begin the 2021 NBA Finals with a challenge on Tuesday evening. The Bucks won the Eastern Conference after a six-game battle with the Atlanta Hawks. The Suns also needed six games to knock off the Los Angeles Clippers, though Phoenix enters with a bit of extra rest when compared to Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) missed the last two games against Atlanta, but he has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable as Game 1 approaches. 

Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET in Phoenix. The latest Bucks vs. Suns odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Phoenix as a 5.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points is up to 219.5 after opening two points lower. Before locking in any Suns vs. Bucks picks, be sure to check out the 2021 NBA Finals predictions from SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein. 

Hartstein, who is a regular on The Early Edge podcast, says he expects one team “to have significant difficulty adjusting” and he has identified the right side to back in his analysis for the NBA Finals 2021. Hartstein is a blistering 58-33 on his last 91 ATS NBA picks involving the Suns, a stretch that has made $100 bettors more than $2200. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.

Now, he has locked in his Suns vs. Bucks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Bucks vs. Suns:

  • Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -5.5
  • Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 219.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -220, Bucks +190
  • MIL: The Bucks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • PHX: The Suns are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks are a prolific offensive team, dating back to the regular season. Milwaukee was a top-five squad in offensive efficiency, scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions, and that included a top-three mark in field-goal percentage (48.7 percent) and a top-five mark in 3-point percentage (38.9 percent). Their 3-point shooting has betrayed them at times during the postseason, but the Bucks have adjusted to using their size to their advantage. Milwaukee boasts an elite 30.8 percent offensive rebound rate in the 2021 NBA Playoffs, and that jumped up to 33.9 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Hawks. 

On the opposite end, the Bucks are always rock-solid defensively, and they actually deploy the No. 1 defensive unit in the postseason in allowing only 1.05 points per possession. Milwaukee can be confident in securing the defensive glass against a Suns team that rarely generates second-chance opportunities. Beyond that, the Bucks are the No. 1 team in the NBA Playoffs 2021 in free throw prevention rate (0.195) and Milwaukee is allowing opponents to post just a 51.2 percent effective field-goal shooting mark through three rounds of postseason action.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix’s offense is its calling card and that is the case for obvious reasons. The Suns scored more than 1.16 points per possession during the regular season, and they are keyed by two prolific creators in Devin Booker and Chris Paul. While their offense remains potent, Phoenix has also excelled defensively in the playoffs, and the Bucks have been vulnerable offensively. The Suns rank No. 2 in the league in playoff defensive efficiency, giving up only 106.7 points per 100 possessions. That goes with the league’s best mark in effective field-goal percentage allowed (49.8 percent) during the playoffs, and the Bucks are capable of turning the ball over at inopportune times. 

Milwaukee is committing a giveaway on 13.4 percent of offensive possessions during the postseason, a below-average rate, and Milwaukee is also shooting just 31.1 percent from 3-point range. Phoenix is a top-tier team in 3-point defense, yielding just 32.6 percent shooting in the playoffs, and the Suns have the size and toughness to force the Bucks into low-percentage looks that could swing the math in their favor.

How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks

Hartstein is leaning over on the total. He’s also identified an alarming 15-1 trend that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who Bucks vs. Suns? And what alarming trend do you need to know about in Game 1? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who has his finger on the pulse of the Suns.

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