Virginia data center growth slowed by electric grid study backlog

(The Center Square) – As Virginia cements its status as the world’s largest data center hub, dozens of new projects are now on hold, caught in a long queue of studies required before they can tap into the electric grid.

The delays stem from a growing backlog of interconnection studies. These technical reviews help utilities and grid operators determine whether a new data center can safely connect to the power system. They model worst-case scenarios and ensure nearby homes and businesses can still be served during faults or outages.

Utilities like Dominion Energy, along with others depending on the region, must complete these reviews before large facilities come online. Projects needing more than 50 megawatts of power often require transmission-level access, which adds federal oversight from PJM, the regional grid operator for Virginia and 12 other states.

That process can take months or longer, depending on location, grid conditions and its hosting capacity, and the scope of the request.

Virginia Tech engineering professor and Director of Power and Energy Center, Dr. Ali Mehrizi-Sani said these studies are critical for making sure the grid can handle new demand safely. They help utilities plan for what could go wrong, such as a line outage or equipment failure, and determine whether nearby homes and businesses would still have power if a large facility came online.

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He said any project that connects at the transmission level, which includes most large data centers, must go through this type of review. That often means modeling different failure scenarios, planning backup power routes and calculating how much electricity the facility will need. The process is complex and can take a year or more, especially as the number of requests continues to grow.

Mehrizi-Sani added that these requirements are standard across the country and are not specific to Virginia or any one provider.

In Virginia, some large-scale data center proposals have already faced delays due to legal challenges, zoning denials or local opposition.

In Prince William County, the $24.7 billion PW Digital Gateway project remains in limbo amid lawsuits and rezoning disputes. A $12 billion project in Culpeper was denied in early 2024, and Amazon’s $6 billion King George County proposal is still tied up over infrastructure agreements.

Industry trackers list over 50 pending or contested projects across the state, from Northern Virginia to rural counties like Powhatan.

Virginia leads the global data center market. The Virginia Economic Development Partnership estimates the commonwealth hosts nearly 150 hyperscale facilities, accounting for roughly 35% of worldwide market share.

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That footprint requires a growing amount of electricity. PJM projects that peak demand across its territory could rise from 154,000 megawatts in 2025 to 220,000 megawatts by 2040.

A 2024 report by the consulting firm E3 and Virginia’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission found that the state may need “unprecedented” investments in power generation and transmission to keep up with demand.

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