(The Center Square) – New presidential polls are dropping, but they don’t bring much clarity for battleground Pennsylvania.
The race is tight and within the margin of error – and one poll has a tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
A Marist Poll found little space between the two.
“In the key electoral state of Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate,” a release says.
Both candidates stand at 49% support, with 1% of likely voters undecided and another 1% supporting another candidate.
The poll, conducted Thursday through Tuesday with 1,476 voters, has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.
“Trump (49%) edges Harris (45%) among independents who are likely to vote. Trump is doing better among independents than he did in the 2020 election (44%), according to the 2020 Exit Poll,” Marist said. “Harris underperforms what the support President Joe Biden received among this voting group in 2020 (52%).”
White voters break for Trump 51%-48% while nonwhite voters favor Harris 59%-38%, though that’s less than Biden’s margin in 2020 (82%).
“Pennsylvania is attracting the most attention of the Rust Belt states from the presidential candidates and with good reason,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “It’s the biggest prize in the region and the most competitive. Winning Pennsylvania doesn’t guarantee the White House, but it goes a long way.”
The seven consensus battleground states represent 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.
Marist also found that inflation, preserving democracy, and immigration are the top issues.
The average of 11 polls aggregated by RealClearPolling gives Harris a 1-point lead. The polling average does not calculate margin of error, generally 3% to 4% in most reputable polls. This means the race is a statistical dead heat.
The election could come down to independent voters; 35% of them told Marist that they “could change their mind or have not made their decision.”
