(The Center Square) — Virginia may not be in play after all in the 2024 presidential contest, judging by the results of a new poll by The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.
The poll, conducted Wednesday through Sunday, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 8% (51%-43%), starkly contrasting with polls administered in the late spring and earlier summer when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
Though the commonwealth hasn’t gone to a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, and it wasn’t included among the list of swing states for this election, a May Roanoke College poll suggested the state might not be as much of a shoo-in as most had thought – if Democrats had stuck with Biden. The poll showed Biden and Trump tied 42%-42% among likely voters.
The college conducted another poll in August, which showed Harris would likely do better, but only slightly. Harris led Trump by 3% (45%-42%), within the poll’s 4.5% margin of error.
But Harris appears to be gaining steam in the Old Dominion state as the election nears, according to the Post-Schar poll. She performed particularly well among women, with an 18-point advantage over Trump, according to the Post.
The economy and protecting American democracy were the most important issues to voters; 87% of respondents indicated both were critical issues for them, though more ranked the economy as “extremely important” than “very important.” Following those were crime and safety, at 79%, and health care, at 74%. Abortion and immigration were big issues for 64% of voters.
When asked who they thought would do a better job handling those issues, Harris bested Trump by a minimum of 4% on everything but immigration and crime and safety, where he led Harris 46-43%.
The Post-Schar poll is rated 23rd by polling aggregate 538, which ranks hundreds of polls nationally, with a transparency score of 9.3 of 10. Its margin of error is 3.5%.
