(The Center Square) — In general, incumbents in the House of Representatives have more than a 90% chance of winning reelection, according to OpenSecrets, but one Virginia incumbent’s seat may be in jeopardy this election season.
Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans holds just a 1-point lead over Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal for Virginia’s 2nd District, according to a new poll by Christopher Newport University that interviewed 800 of the district’s registered, likely voters.
Kiggans has only held the office since 2023, the first to win after 2021’s redistricting. Her predecessor, Elaine Luria, a Democrat, was elected in 2018 and won reelection in 2020.
According to pundits, redistricting made the district – which includes the most Southeasterly parts of the commonwealth, including Virginia Beach and the Virginia part of the Delmarva Peninsula – friendlier to Republicans, who often won elections there before. Former President Donald Trump in 2016 and Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021 both won there before redistricting occurred by more than 5% and 11%, respectively. However, President Joe Biden comfortably carried the district in 2020, and a June Washington Post analysis described the district as “… about as middle-of-the-road as they come, full of independents and swing voters.”
Kiggans and Cotter Smasal have military backgrounds, as the district is heavily military, with several bases and naval stations in the area. Kiggans served as a helicopter pilot for the U.S. Navy for 10 years, is married to a retired Navy fighter pilot, and has one child in the Navy and another who attended the Virginia Military Institute.
Cotter Smasal served as a Surface Warfare Officer for the Navy during Operation Enduring Freedom and is married to a former Army Officer. She’s also the executive director of a nonprofit that hosts running events honoring fallen servicewomen.
The Christopher Newport University poll showed Kiggans leading Cotter Smasal 46%-45%, with 8% still undecided. Ninety-nine percent of those polled indicated they had already voted or planned to vote in the election.
More respondents reported having a favorable opinion of Kiggans (43%- 35%). However, it appeared that more also felt more familiar with her (5% said they didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion, while 11% said the same for Cotter Smasal).
Inflation and the economy ranked as the top concern for most respondents heading into the election, with “threats to democracy,” immigration and abortion following (30%, 20%, 13% and 10%, respectively).
Those polled were asked who they trusted most to handle military and veteran concerns and “reproductive rights, such as abortion and IVF.” Kiggans was favored for the former at 46%-42%, and Cotter Smasal was favored for the latter at 49%-35%.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris was shown to hold a 2% lead over former President Donald Trump in the district. In comparison, longtime Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine led Republican opponent Hung Cao by 7%.
