(The Center Square) — Despite Virginia Republicans appearing to have cast more early in-person votes than Democrats this year, early voting statistics haven’t changed much from a month ago, when the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project first reported them.
Early votes continue to pour in but ultimately lag 2020 numbers. Fourteen days out from the election in 2020, close to 1.6 million ballots had come in, and about 1.3 million more would continue to trickle in for a total tally of more than 2.8 million early votes as of five days post-election. This year, it’s about 1.2 million.
If 2020 is any indication, 2024 could see close to 1 million more early votes ahead of election day.
Consistent with results from late September, the two districts where the most voting has happened so far lean Republican.
District 1, where Republican Rep. Rob Wittman has held the office since 2007, still has the most votes so far – though less than half of 2020’s – at 141,425. District 5, which leans even further right than District 1 and previously elected House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good, isn’t far behind, with 121,149 early votes cast. This year, state senator and Trump endorsee John McGuire will square off against Democrat Gloria Witt.
Following District 5 is District 11, represented by longtime Democratic incumbent Gerry Connolly, with 116,665 early votes, and District 10 – a competitive, though left-leaning district – with 114,431 votes cast. The district’s incumbent, Jennifer Wexton, declined to run for reelection due to a serious illness. Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam won the nomination in her stead and is running against Republican Mike Clancy.
In every Virginia congressional race featuring an incumbent, the incumbent has significantly outraised his or her competitor. In Districts 5, 7 and 10, which lack an incumbent (Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7, also chose not to run for reelection and is instead running for governor), the candidate whose party currently represents the district leads in fundraising.
Districts 7, 10 and 2 – where Republican Rep. Jenn Kiggans is running against Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal – have been designated as the competitive races to watch in this election.
Virginia has 11 congressional districts currently represented by six Democrats and five Republicans. A Republican would have to win District 7 or 10 while Kiggans keeps her district in order to flip the state’s balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Two longtime Democratic senators and former Virginia governors, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, represent the commonwealth. Kaine is running against Republican and Trump endorsee Hung Cao.
