(The Center Square) – Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger is starting October with a polling advantage in Virginia’s governor’s race as the month opens with a federal shutdown and political tension building in Virginia.
An Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday shows Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 52% to 42%, with 5% of voters undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 28–29, as early voting began.
Those who already cast ballots reported backing Spanberger 60% to 38%. Among likely voters who have not yet voted, she still leads 50% to 43%.
Independent voters, who leaned toward Earle-Sears in January, now favor Spanberger by 19 points, while male voters are evenly split after giving Republicans a double-digit edge earlier in the year.
Voters under 50 support Spanberger 59% to 32%, while older voters remain nearly evenly divided.
“Spanberger has picked up significant momentum since the first Emerson College poll at the beginning of 2025, driven by increases in support from independents, males and younger voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Spanberger and Earle-Sears both enter the final stretch with well-defined images. Spanberger is viewed favorably by 51% of voters and unfavorably by 38%. Earle-Sears holds a 42% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating.
When asked to name the single most important issue, 35% pointed to the economy, 20% to threats to democracy, and smaller shares to immigration and crime, each at 6%.
The poll results landed just as the federal government entered a shutdown, underscoring the stakes of an election where Virginia’s role as a government hub is front and center.
The survey of 725 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.
