(The Center Square) — The districts most likely to shift Virginia’s current balance of power in the House of Representatives from Democratic to Republican would be District 7 or 10, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project – but that may prove a tough feat for District 10’s Republican Mike Clancy.
Clancy is a lawyer, tech executive and “national media commentator,” according to his campaign website. He was the clear winner of the district’s Republican primary, capturing nearly 65% of the vote. But he has never been elected to state-level office before. At the same time, his competitor is Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Loudoun, elected to the state Senate after two terms in its House of Delegates.
District 10 also leans to the left. Unlike District 2, which The Washington Post called “about as middle-of-the-road as they come,” and District 7, which contains several deep blue localities alongside more that are deep red, only 12% of District 10 belongs to deep red counties. Nearly 80% of the district comprises Loudoun and Prince William counties, where former governor Terry McAuliffe won by 11% and nearly 15% in the 2021 gubernatorial election.
Subramanyam’s political career has flourished in the area, though this is his first time running for federal office. When the incumbent delegate ran for state Senate in 2019, Subramanyam ran as the Democratic candidate for the state House. He defeated his Republican opponent by 24 points, winning House District 87, 62%-37.9%. He secured reelection in 2021 with a 17-point victory over his Republican counterpart. Subramanyam ran for state Senate when the incumbent declined to seek reelection and won Senate District 32, 60.5%-39%.
Congressional District 10 is still considered one of the more competitive districts, according to the Virginia Public Access Project; however, by averaging results from 2021’s gubernatorial election and the 2022 congressional election – one major election before redistricting and one after. According to that methodology, the district had a lesser partisan lean (+4 Democratic lean) than any other district besides District 7, which fell just a hair to the right (+0.1 Republican lean).
Clancy is running on the theme “Fighting to Restore America,” which he defines partly as revitalizing the economy by “unleashing American innovation, American energy production,” cutting regulatory red tape for small businesses, and “reining in Biden’s reckless spending.” Fiscally responsible government and the economy are at the forefront of his campaign. He also advocates for a tighter border and “restor[ing] our national sovereignty,” supporting law enforcement, a strong national defense and limited constitutional government.
Clancy has consistently highlighted what he sees as the current administration’s shortcomings, as well as those of his opponent, on social media.
“Harris promises more of the same failed policies & @SuhasforVA will be a rubber stamp for all of it,” Clancy wrote on Oct. 10 on X.
Clancy’s campaign has also underscored a “pattern of deception” in his opponent, arguing that Subramanyam has relied on untruths to win voters’ support after a story broke of his recommended termination from the Ashburn Volunteer Fire and Rescue Department.
“Voters deserve a candidate they can trust, not someone who repeatedly lies about their background and qualifications,” Clancy said in a statement.”
Subramanyam has emphasized the support he has received in his campaign, not only from current Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton and other Democratic leadership in the state but also from select Republicans. A pinned post on X shows Republican former Congresswoman Barbara Comstock and Wexton, who replaced her, coming together to endorse him. A later post shows Republican former Del. David Ramadan expressing his support for Subramanyam.
Ramadan now teaches at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, and his X feed is awash with positive reposts of Kamala Harris’s campaign and opposition to Trump, calling him an “orange buffoon” and anti-Muslim bigot.” Comstock has officially endorsed Kamala Harris for president.
The economy and reproductive health care are at the forefront of Subramanyam’s campaign.
“Like Del. Ramadan, I will continue to work to lower costs, address inflation, and protect our #VA10 economy in Congress,” Subramanyam wrote in a post on X.
Subramanyam’s campaign has also attempted to portray Clancy as deceptive, claiming he has “attempted to hide and erase his involvement with the Heritage Foundation ever since becoming the Republican nominee for Virginia’s 10th Congressional District.”
