(The Center Square) — Early voting in Virginia for the 2024 presidential election is tracking with 2020 levels so far, which more than quadrupled from previous election years, according to the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.
In the three presidential elections preceding 2020, early voting hovered around 10% of registered voters in the commonwealth. In 2020, it jumped to 46%, with more than 2.8 million of Virginia’s then 5.98 million registered voters casting their ballots early.
Though Virginia’s population and number of registered voters have grown, early voting is less than in 2020 at this point, but not by much – 223,988 to 226,385. Most of that voting has been done in person, according to the project, with 190,864 residents having already gone to the polls.
Democrats typically significantly out-early-vote Republicans in the commonwealth, but the districts where the most voting has happened so far lean Republican or strongly Republican.
District 1, where Republican Rep. Rob Wittman has held the office since 2007, has the most votes so far at 30,423. Districts 5, 6 and 9 – the more conservative congressional districts in the commonwealth – follow. In its last congressional election, District 5 elected Bob Good, who until recently, served as the chair of the House Freedom Caucus.
Districts 7 and 10, are currently represented by Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton, have been ranked as the most competitive districts on the project’s index based on voting history. But Spanberger declared last year that she’s running for governor, and Wexton declined to run for reelection due to her diagnosis with an aggressive form of Parkinson’s disease.
Trump whistleblower Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson have squared off for Spanberger’s seat, and Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam is running against Republican Mike Clancy to replace Wexton.
More early votes should continue to pour in until election day when more than 50% of votes will likely be cast.
While Virginia isn’t considered a battleground state for this election, and Harris has led in several prominent polls by a few points, Harris and Trump were nearly tied in a recent survey by the University of Mary Washington (47%-46%). However, a Republican hasn’t won a presidential election in the commonwealth since George W. Bush in 2004.
