(The Center Square) — Rumors have circulated for the duration of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s time in office, and even before, of a possible run for president in 2024 – and they have yet to subside completely.
Distant observers may find the eagerness of some supporters to throw Youngkin’s hat into the 2024 presidential ring a little strange, or at least premature. Youngkin is a first-time governor with no previous experience in public office.
But Jesse Richman, associate professor of political science and international studies at Old Dominion University, spoke with The Center Square about why such excitement existed for Youngkin early on.
“I think there are a couple of reasons,” Richman said. “One is, he did surprisingly well in his election in Virginia. Youngkin was able to use his Democratic opponent’s [attempts] to tie him to Trump as a strategy to solidify the Trump base, while continuing to try to find ways to appeal beyond it.”
With a Trump endorsement, Youngkin famously won over both Trump supporters and enough moderate Republicans to win Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election.
The question – for Youngkin supporters and detractors– is whether what worked for Youngkin at the state level would work for him at the national level against the current field of competitors.
Youngkin had several things going for him that, Richman pointed out, could be different in this contest.
In his race for governor, Youngkin was able to cover some of his campaign costs – thanks to his venture capital success in the business world – but presidential campaigns are much more expensive than campaigns at the state level.
He also emerged as the Republican nominee through ranked-choice voting, meaning he “may or may not have been the strongest candidate in terms of number of votes heading into that process,” according to Richman, in a state where Republicans had recently endured repeated defeat in statewide elections.
“What ranked-choice primaries tend to do is select candidates who are more in the center of their party, who aren’t just the property of one faction or another. I think that’s an advantage that Youngkin was able to bring to that campaign,” Richman said.
“I think that after a party has suffered a number of losses, the willingness of different party factions to select a candidate who they think has the best chance of winning and support a candidate who they think can win – even if they don’t agree with them on everything – improves.”
At the least, there’s one reason that a run for president now isn’t so out-of-the-question for Youngkin.
Virginia is the only state in the nation that limits its governors to one consecutive term. Virginia governors can run reelection campaigns only after someone else has served in office. As a result, many Virginia governors begin thinking about other political aspirations while still in their first term.
“It’s possible that entering the race would have benefits for Youngkin beyond the possibility of winning the presidency. There could also be the opportunity to build a broader national platform and increase the capabilities he might have to run for some other office if he wants to,” Richman said. “If he wanted to, Gov. Youngkin could be in a strong position to enter one of the upcoming Senate races after he finishes his time as governor.”
In terms of what would make him a qualified candidate, Richman argues that Youngkin can’t offer much in the way of “big ticket” legislative accomplishments, as a split legislature has called for repeated compromise.
“He’s been able to accomplish some modest changes in state policy, but the partisan legislative stuff has mostly been blocked by the other side,” Richman said.
“His accomplishment was successfully winning a race against a well-established, well-funded Democratic opponent in a state that had been seen as a swing state that was increasingly locked up for the Dem party.”
It’s possible that a candidate who’s able to win over both Trump supporters and more moderate conservatives could be what’s needed for Republicans in this race, but not while Trump is still a contender, Richman says.
“If at some point, Trump becomes clearly unable to participate, I think that’s where there could be an opening for someone like Youngkin to come in,” Richman said.
