(The Center Square) – Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race is drawing a flood of outside money and the polling is becoming increasingly competitive.
This comes as Republicans consolidate behind the former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrats remain divided in a tight primary contest.
Recent polling shows Rogers holding narrow leads against each of the leading Democrat candidates in potential general election matchups.
Democratic contenders include former gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, who remain clustered closely together ahead of the August primary, which is in just 78 days.
While all within the margin of error, Rogers most consistently led El-Sayed, who has been labeled the political-outsider candidate in the race, despite polling well.
An Emerson College Polling/WOOD-TV survey released last month found El-Sayed and McMorrow each receiving 24% support among likely Democratic primary voters, while Stevens trailed at 13%. Thirty-six percent of voters remained undecided.
The poll marked significant movement since January, with El-Sayed gaining 8 points, McMorrow gaining 2 points and Stevens dropping 4 points.
“There are generational differences in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: voters under 40 support El-Sayed over McMorrow by a 17-point margin, 35% to 18%, while voters over 50 support McMorrow over El-Sayed by a 12-point margin, 29% to 17%, with 13% supporting Stevens,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
An average of recent polling reported by 270toWin shows El-Sayed leading the Democrat field with roughly 24% support, while McMorrow and Stevens sit just under 20%.
On the Republican side, Rogers has largely cleared the field. An April poll from Emerson found Rogers receiving 55% support among Republican primary voters.
Looking ahead to the general election in November, polling shows Rogers with small but consistent advantages against each Democratic contender. Polling averages show Rogers leading Stevens 43% to 40.5%, leading McMorrow 43% to 41%, and leading El-Sayed 43.5% to 40.5%.
Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat became a political contender after U.S. Sen. Gary Peters announced in early 2025 that he would not seek reelection following decades in public office. Peters, a Democrat, said at the time that after decades in public office, he was ready to step aside and “turn over the reins.”
The outcome of Michigan’s Senate race will play a role in determining which party controls the 120th Congress. Of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, along with two special elections. Democrats currently hold 13 of the seats on the ballot, while Republicans hold 22.
In 2024, the state’s U.S. Senate race was decided by less than half a percentage point, with U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeating Rogers.
The increasingly-competitive polling numbers come as national groups from both parties pour millions of dollars into the race.
Earlier this spring, the Senate Leadership Fund announced it would commit $45 million to back Rogers’ campaign as part of a broader national strategy targeting competitive Senate races.
At the same time, Democrat-aligned groups have also begun ramping up spending in Michigan.
A newly-formed political organization recently reserved more than $5 million in advertising defending Stevens on immigration issues across multiple Michigan television markets, while the Democrat-affiliated Senate Majority PAC also recently announced plans to spend $20 million in the fall on television reservations for the Democrat candidate.
