(The Center Square) – Since the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic migration in Michigan has been driving rural population growth.
While urban counties and the state overall saw a decline in population in the midst and in the aftermath of the pandemic, rural counties saw an increase in population.
This is all according to a new report from the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics, which used U.S. Census Bureau data.
While only 16.5% of Michigan’s population lived in rural counties in 2020, rural counties comprised 40.8% of the state’s total population growth from 2020 to 2023.
The report stated that this is a “notable reversal of rural decline in the 2010s,” where rural counties saw decreasing populations nearly every year.
Across the state, 53 of its 83 counties are considered rural.
While the growth of 0.6% from 2020 to 2023 was not enough to offset the rural loss of the 2010s, it was enough to offset the natural population change (the difference between births and deaths) in those counties.
“Migration is especially important in rural counties since they are more likely to experience natural decrease than urban counties,” the report found. “The rate of natural decrease was -13.5 per 1,000 people for rural counties from 2020 to 2023, compared to -0.89 for urban counties.”
While the Michigan report only looked at data up to 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau also recently released data for 2024 looking at total population changes in the state.
According to that data, Michigan overall had a gain in population over the past year, which was driven by international migration.
This was good news for the state, which has been struggling with its population since the pandemic. It looked bleakest in 2021, when the state had a net loss of 31,000.
Since then though, the Bureau improved its methodology to better estimate the number of international migrants in the state. This year, it had a total gain of 57,000, with 67,608 international migrants.
While the pandemic was one potential factor in the rural growth, both in Michigan and across the nation, the Michigan report also pointed to high housing costs and increases in remote work as likely playing a role.
Experts are unsure if the trend towards rural migration in Michigan will continue in the coming years, which it would need to do if rural counties are to continue growing.
“Consistent with national trends, Michigan’s rural migration gains were slowing in 2023,” the report found. “Rural growth over a longer time horizon will be challenging as baby boomers age into their 70s and 80s and if births continue declining. Rural and urban areas alike will require continuous and higher levels of migration to offset this steepening natural decrease.”
