(The Center Square) – The latest poll shows President Joe Biden winning Wisconsin in 2024, but only if his opponent is Donald Trump.
A new Marquette Law School poll gives the current president a 2-point lead over the former president, 50-48, in Wisconsin.
“Biden receives a higher share of Democratic votes than does Trump among Republicans, while independents split evenly,” pollsters said.
In fact, the poll shows President Biden receiving the vote of 94% of Democrats, while Trump receives the votes of 88% of Republicans. They are even, 47-47, among independents.
President Biden trails, according to the poll, both Ron DeSantis and Nickey Haley.
“Republicans back DeSantis more strongly than they do Trump, while independents support DeSantis over Biden,” the pollsters added. “Haley runs especially well against Biden in this survey. [She wins] a larger share of Republicans than DeSantis or Trump and matching DeSantis’ share of independent votes. She also wins 8% of Democratic voters, a larger share than does DeSantis or Trump.”
Haley leads Biden in the Marquette poll 53-44, while DeSantis leads 50-48.
The MU poll has a margin of error of +/-4.5%, but lead pollster Charles Franklin says they have been much closer than that in the last several polls and elections.
“We missed Evers by 3.2 and Barnes by 1.4. Michels was off by 0.2 and Johnson by 0.4 Beglinger by 1,” Franklin said on social media Wednesday.
The new poll shows all of the 2024 candidates that pollsters asked about are underwater in terms of popularity.
Just 42% of voters have a favorable opinion of President Biden, compared to the 56% who do not.
Former President Trump is even less popular. The poll says 37% of people have a favorable view of him, while 61% do not.
DeSantis and Haley are also more unpopular than popular. DeSantis is 12 points underwater, and Haley is 3. But the poll notes that 13% of voters haven’t heard enough about DeSantis, and 33% percent haven’t heard enough about Haley to make a decision.
The other possible candidate in the Marquette poll, who could be a spoiler next year, is Robert Kendy Jr.
“Kennedy is viewed favorably by 31%, and unfavorably by 39%, while 30% say they haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion. Table 14 shows favorability to Kennedy by party identification. Kennedy is viewed much more favorably among Republicans than among Democrats, with independents less favorable than Republicans and considerably more likely to say they haven’t heard enough about Kennedy,” pollsters noted.
This latest Marquette Law School Poll was conducted Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023, interviewing 908 Wisconsin registered voters.