More than $2.3 billion is in the handle, and odds are roughly 64% that Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris to become the next president of the United States.
And that’s just Polymarket, the financial exchange and prediction market dealing in cryptocurrency stablecoin tied to the American dollar and the blockchain network Polygon. Millions more dollars are riding the outcome from bets alone.
While the Super Bowl justifiably grabs attention as the annual most-wagered sports event, legalized gambling as a source of revenue for states has likely brought more people to the betting market.
Certainly, attention is riding with the pollsters. Forecasting an outcome even in politics, however, is not limited.
Nor should it be. After all, the house wants to make money – same whether the bet is Trump and Harris, or Steelers and Cowboys.
The Trump and Harris wagering has swayed six times, according to RealClear Politics’ analysis. It doesn’t include every available book, but its seven sources – as well as its other robust aggregation – are considered reputable.
The Polymarket numbers are drawing attention internally, according to multiple reports. Cited are eight-figure bets on Trump.
Even without Polymarket, the RealClear Polling advantage is with the former Republican president against the incumbent Democratic vice president. The RealClear average is 60.9%-37.6%, meaning in simulations Harris still wins 1 in 3. In other words, far from a done deal. And better than Trump (17%) against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
At time of RealClear’s update on Wednesday, Polymarket was at 61% and by early afternoon had climbed to 64%. Others generating the RCP average are Bovada (62%), Points Bet (62%), Betsson (62%), Bwin (61%), Betfair (59%) and Smarkets (59%).
Trump, per the RealClear average, was a 9.2% leader on Oct. 14 and up to 17.2% last week on Thursday.
He was a 26.4% leader the day after President Joe Biden quit the race against him. The first lead change was Aug. 8.
At the time of the first assassination attempt of Trump, on July 13, he was running against Biden and his difference soared to plus-48.5. It was still over plus-42 a day before Biden quit and Harris assumed the preferred candidate of choice for Democrats.
Trump has a 20-point platform, led by a return to enforcement of securing national borders. He chastises the Democrats for inflation that at 2.4% remains higher than when he left office in January 2021, yet is considerably lower than the 9.1% high of June 2022 under the watch of President Joe Biden. Energy independence and “manufacturing superpower” are also in his top five.
Harris, second in command to Biden, says her top issues are an opportunity economy and lower costs for families. Tax cuts for the middle class, affordable rent and home ownership, and growth by small businesses also top her list. She favors a return to Roe v. Wade on abortion.
