Republican’s massive tax and spending bill would increase the U.S. deficit by $2.8 trillion over 10 years when the economic growth of the bill is taken into account, the Congressional Budget Office says.
CBO previously projected that the budget reconciliation bill would increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion without taking the economic impact of the bill into account. Republicans argued that this analysis failed to consider the economic growth the bill’s tax cuts and other Trump administration policies would produce. The booming economy would thus make up for the $2.4 trillion deficit found in the bill, Republicans said.
These numbers by Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper undermine Republican arguments.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan think tank in D.C., released similar analysis Monday. They project that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would add $3 trillion to the debt through 2034.
Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., dismissed previous CBO scores, saying that “they’ve always been off.”
The issue of how President Donald Trump’s domestic policy package might add or take away from the U.S. deficit has caused a rift between Democrats and Republicans during the 119th Congress. Democrats see Tuesday’s CBO analysis as a win for their argument.
“Today’s CBO score will disappoint every Republican who hoped tax breaks for billionaires would magically pay for themselves,” House Budget Committee Ranking Member Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa., said Tuesday.
Concord Action, a fiscal grassroots organization, also weighed in on Tuesday’s CBO estimate.
“With our total debt greater than the size of our entire economy, Congress cannot continue business as usual,” Executive Director Carolyn Bourdeaux said. “There are many ways to pay for this bill or restructure it to be both pro-growth and deficit neutral.”
Differing priorities between Republicans in the two chambers of Congress are slowing down progress toward a final vote on their “big, beautiful bill” by Independence Day.
Vice President J.D. Vance told Republican senators in a closed-door meeting Tuesday that Congress’ August recess is a more likely goal for getting the bill to the president’s desk, according to Punchbowl News. Vance said July 4 should be the deadline for the Senate’s version to be finalized.
