Control of Congress up for grabs next year as voters split between Republicans, Democrats

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If the election were held today, Republicans and Democrats in Congress would be in a near tie, meaning neither party seems to have an edge heading into the 2024 cycle.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, asked voters the following question:

“If the election for Congress were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your district?”

The survey found that 44% of likely voters said they would choose the Republican, compared to 43% who said the Democrat. Another 11% were unsure, suggesting the election is still up in the air about a year out.

The tossup in polling mirrors the current makeup of Congress, with Republicans holding a slight advantage in the U.S. House, 221-212, and Democrats (including three Independents who caucus with Democrats) controlling the U.S. Senate, 51-49.

Support varies for either party by age, according to the survey, which found that among those 18-34 years old, 35% would support a Congressional Republican while 45% support the Democrat.

Those differences are about the same among those ages 35-44, with 36% supporting the Republican and 44% supporting the Democrat.

Support flips among older voters, with 44% of those aged 45-54 going for the Republican compared to only 36% choosing the Democrat.

Those aged 55-64 support Republicans over Democrats, 43% to 36%. Of those over 65 years of age, 46% support the Republican and 43% support the Democrat.

Support varies by gender as well, with women breaking for Republicans, 43% to 40%, while men support Democrats more, 43% to 40%.

White voters, according to the survey, support a Congressional Republican in their district more than Democrats, 47% to 37%. Black voters, though, overwhelmingly support Democrats, 78% to 5%.

Hispanic voters favor Republicans slightly more, 41% to 39%.

When asked the same question about the presidential election, the survey found that 48% of voters support Biden compared to 44% support for Trump.

Though neither the Republican or Democratic party has an official nominee just yet, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are far and away leading the field among party voters.

As The Center Square previously reported, that poll also found that 66% of likely voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction compared to just 24% who say it is headed in the right direction.

The survey of 2,605 voters includes 1,035 Republicans, 1,074 Democrats, and 496 true Independents, and is among the most comprehensive in the country.

It was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 20-26 and has a margin of error of 1.92%.

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