This week, the focus shifts to the consumer, with March retail sales and the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales report.
Both reports are likely to point to a modest pickup from February. For retail sales, part of the gain may reflect firmer prices and support from tax refunds. But the bigger question is whether real, inflation-adjusted spending is holding up. The consumer still looks resilient, though more selective and cautious than a year ago.
On housing, there is less need to wait for the NAR report because Zillow already provides a timelier read on contract activity. Zillow’s March market report showed 281,546 newly pending listings, the second-highest monthly total since August 2022. Newly pending sales were up 4.6% from a year earlier and nearly 30% from February, the strongest March showing since 2021. Zillow attributes that strength to pent-up demand after three years of weak sales, weather-related disruption that softened activity in January and February, and a somewhat improved affordability picture from a year ago.
That suggests the home shopping season is still underway and that households had not fully pulled back as of March. Even so, the boost may prove temporary if energy prices stay elevated, mortgage rates remain high, or the labor market softens further. Zillow has already marked down its 2026 existing-home-sales outlook because higher-than-previously-expected mortgage rates could weigh on demand.
The April backdrop has improved somewhat, but not enough to declare the all-clear. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate eased to 6.30% in the week ending April 16, down from 6.37% a week earlier. Initial jobless claims fell to 207,000 in the week ending April 11. The four-week average remains low at 209,750, while the four-week average of insured unemployment has edged down.
Energy markets are also a bit less stressed than they were earlier in the month, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz beginning to reopen, though conditions remain fragile rather than fully normalized.
The message for now: March likely captures a consumer that was still hanging in. April looks a little better at the margin, but the durability of that improvement will depend on whether energy prices continue to move lower, mortgage rates ease further, and the labor market regains firmer footing.
