American voters are one month out from election day, and some new developments threaten to upset the close race.
According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, the two candidates are nearly tied in several key swing states.
Former President Donald Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina while Vice President Kamala Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, though the leads in all six of those states are less than 2 points, within the margin of error in most polls.
They are tied in Pennsylvania, according to RCP.
However, the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing negotiations over port closures on the East and Gulf coasts have the potential to be a crippling October surprise for Harris.
As vice president, Harris has tried to walk a fine line of taking credit for the economic recovery under Biden and other accomplishments while attempting to skirt responsibility for the border crisis, 40-year-high inflation and other problems during that same term.
In particular, the border has been a troublesome issue for Harris since Biden appointed her to take the lead on it, though she has since downplayed her role as “border czar” as illegal immigration soared while she was in office.
More than 14 million foreign nationals have illegally crossed U.S. borders since Biden-Harris took office, The Center Square reported.
This October presents more potential problems. Experts warned the port strike could cause prices to soar on all kinds of goods, from food to alcohol to cars. A tentative deal reached Thursday that reportedly will give workers a 62% raise temporarily ended the three-day shutdown, which would have been crippling for the U.S. economy.
The American Feed Industry Association warned this week that the port closures could “drive up costs” and wreak havoc akin to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The failure of the [United States Maritime Alliance] and [International Longshoremen’s Association] to reach a labor agreement or of the Biden administration to intervene before the contract deadline now means that U.S. animal food manufacturers face a dire trading situation that mirrors – or could be worse than – the days of the COVID-19 pandemic,” AFIA President and Chief Executive Officer Constance Cullman said in a statement.
With the recent spike in inflation already, voters may have little patience for Harris, who has overseen a price spike of more than 20% since she took office, but the settlement likely will ease some concerns.
Polling has consistently shown for months that inflation ranks as the top concern for voters.
The strike has ended for now, but with the details still being hashed out, it is possible the deal could still fall through and create a major political liability for Harris.
The escalating tension in the Middle East also could suddenly become an election issue if the brewing war between Israel and Iran escalates to a broader regional conflict that draws in more U.S. forces.
The U.S. helped shoot down Iranian missiles that were fired in the latest Iranian attack on Israel. Israel is at war with the terrorist group Hamas, which launched the Oct. 7 terror attack, as well as Hezbollah, an Iranian backed terrorist group that has been firing on northern Israel for months.
Harris has so far politically navigated the issue better than her nominated predecessor, President Joe Biden, who regularly faced protests from the left wing of his party.
At the debate this week, that conflict was the first question asked, and Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, clearly stated Israel’s “right to defend itself.”
But if the powder keg explodes in October, Harris may find it difficult to distance herself from responsibility as Trump continues to point out he had no such conflicts when he was in office.
“There is no question that economic uncertainty and international unrest are key features of the Biden-Harris Administration,” Republican strategist Nathan Brand told The Center Square. “Voters clearly do not want more of the same, so that could spell trouble for Harris in November.”
At the vice presidential debate last week, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, was happy to blast Harris for the economic difficulties during her time as vice president. For now, no future debates are scheduled.
“Honestly Tim, I think you’ve got a tough job here,” Vance told Walz. “You’ve got to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver rising take home pay, which of course he did. You’ve got to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver lower inflation, which of course he did. And then you’ve simultaneously got to defend Kamala Harris’s atrocious economic record, which has made gas, groceries, and housing unaffordable for American citizens.”
