The honeymoon with voters in battleground North Carolina is fading, according to polling for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
As former President Donald Trump rolled into Charlotte on Friday to address the National Fraternal Order of Police, the most recent polling releases did not show him trailing even modestly. The last time was a Morning Consult poll sponsored by Bloomberg conducted the weekend after the Democratic National Convention.
He goes head-to-head with Harris on Tuesday in Philadelphia in what is so far the only debate scheduled. Pivotal would be an understatement with Election Day moving under 60 days away over the weekend.
Trump’s campaign has gotten financial boosts from litigations in New York, Florida, Georgia and Washington, and aside from a conviction in the former – with sentencing on Friday pushed back behind Election Day – three of them have tumbled.
The Florida documents case was tossed, the Georgia interference case is slogging through accusations of impropriety, and an immunity decision has left the case in Washington essentially on life support.
Harris, trying to recast herself as a challenger, rather than the incumbent she is of the Biden administration, wasn’t a candidate until 107 days prior to Nov. 5. She’s tried to thread a needle of Democrats’ policies against statistical failures, such as inflation more than double since she became vice president and everyday prices about 20% higher across the board.
Then there’s her words on Trump’s border wall – said called it a waste of taxpayer money – combined with President Joe Biden’s rush of executive orders on immigration in the early days of his presidency.
Still, a statistical dead heat in North Carolina factoring margin of error, Trump has nonetheless modestly led each of four polls since Harris was up 49%-47% in the Bloomberg poll of 700 registered voters taken Aug. 23-26. It had +/- 4% margin of error.
The same time period, Fox News polled 999 registered voters. Trump led 50%-49% with margin of error +/- 3%.
It was +/- 3.5% margin of error each and Trump up 49%-48% each for sampling of 775 likely voters on Aug. 25-28 by The Hill and Emerson College, and for sampling of 800 likely voters on Aug. 29-31 by Insider Advantage.
The East Carolina University poll released this week, with +/- 3% margin of error, had 920 likely voters respond with Trump ahead 48%-47%.
In addition to Bloomberg, two other polls were led by Harris last month. In an Aug. 9-14 sampling of 655 likely voters by the New York Times and Siena College, no margin of error was available with her 49%-47% lead. In the Aug. 19-21 polling of 1,053 registered voters by High Point University, margin of error was +/- 4% with Harris leading 46%-45%.
In 14 election cycles dating to Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson’s win in 1964, North Carolina has been carried by a Republican every presidential race sans Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. Neither repeated the feat four years later.
