Former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden is 51%-43% in a poll of 1,053 likely voters in North Carolina taken just days before a verdict was announced in New York.
Given the state’s pattern of presidential picks for 60 years, the Republican leading the Democrat is of no surprise. The sampling from Rasmussen Reports and NumbersUSA was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on May 26-27, has sampling error of +/- 3% and a 95% level of confidence.
Three days after polling ended, the 77-year-old Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies by a Manhattan jury tied to “hush money” payments made amid the 2016 election. He has led the 81-year-old commander-in-chief throughout the election season in statewide polling.
Based on ad spending and consensus of politicos, the key or swing states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. They combine for 93 electoral college votes, with Pennsylvania’s 19 the most of the group and Nevada’s six the only one not in double digits.
While pitched as a toss-up state, Biden winning the 16 electoral college votes of North Carolina would be considered a significant upset. North Carolinians have chosen every Republican presidential candidate starting with Richard Nixon in 1968, except for Jimmy Carter (1976, not 1980 versus Ronald Reagan) and Barack Obama (2008, not 2012 versus Mitt Romney). Trump beat Biden 49.9%-48.6% in North Carolina with more than 5.5 million votes cast in 2020, and he turned back Hillary Clinton 49.8%-46.2% with more than 4.7 million votes cast in 2016.
The last Republican as much as 9% better than his opponent was incumbent George W. Bush in 2004, who topped John Kerry 56%-43.6% with North Carolinian John Edwards – long before the December 2007 revelation of an extramarital affair – on his ticket.
Unaffiliated voters control statewide elections. Through Saturday, the more than 7.4 million voter registrations are 37% unaffiliated, 32.1% Democrats and 30% Republicans.
Also strong in decision by respondents was the desire for stricter immigration enforcement. Every state should use every tool available to combat illegal immigration, said 81% of respondents. Those saying it is “very important” was 58%. Fourteen percent said it was not important.
The polling found 3 in 4 saying all employers should use E-Verify so legal workers are hired. Asked if companies not using it should lose their business license, 69% agreed with such punishment.
In a release, Andrew Good said, “It is long past time for the state Legislature and Governor Roy Cooper to ensure that employers in North Carolina are hiring only workers who are legally allowed to work in the state.”
Good is director of State Government Relations for NumbersUSA.
Fifty percent said if their state representative voted against a bill mandating E-Verify, their support would be less likely in the future.
Elsewhere in the results, 46% approved of the job done by Biden and 53% disapproved; and 76% favor a program helping state and local law enforcement partner with federal immigration authorities to capture, detain, hold and deport criminals who have entered or are living in the country illegally.
Rasmussen Reports doesn’t have a rating with 538, a consensus credible rater of polling operations based on historical track record and methodological transparency of the polls. It does has a transparency score of 3.1. For context, the Marquette University Poll is ranked No. 3 nationally, gets three of three stars for rating, and has a transparency score of 10.0.
