In many battleground states, former President Donald Trump is in better position this election cycle compared to the same time in the 2020 election cycle when he lost to Joe Biden.
In six of the seven consensus states, Trump’s polling average is better than the same point four years ago. Ninety-three electoral college votes ride on Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (six).
Biden won six of those states in 2020 – North Carolina was the exception – and the electoral college 306-232.
Polling information from Project 538 is included in the following state by state summaries.
Michigan
Michigan is a perfect example of this trend.
At this point in 2020, Biden led Trump by nearly 8%. This year, Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump by only 1.8%, which is well within the margin of error.
Harris polls better than Biden when he was in the race in June and July. Michigan has the trifecta of Democrats for governor and majorities in both chambers of the Legislature.
Biden was leading Trump by 7.9% in polling heading into Election Day. He then won by just 2.8%.
This year, Harris’ 5% behind Biden could be pivotal.
Arizona
Arizona is seeing a very similar trend to Michigan.
In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 4.8%. Compared to Trump’s lead today in the state of nearly 1%, polling has Trump up nearly 6% compared to his 2020 average.
Harris is still within the margin of error, usually about 3% to 4% on most polls.
Biden led the polls by 2.6% going into Election Day and won by 11,000 votes, or just 0.3%.
Georgia
In Georgia, Trump is polling just 0.4% ahead of Harris – down from 1.4% over Biden four years ago.
In 2020, Biden began leading Trump on Oct. 1. By Election Day, he was 1.2% ahead of Trump. The winning difference was about 11,000 votes, or just 0.2%.
Since 1980, this was only one of two times that the Republican presidential candidate lost in Georgia.
Nevada
While Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada by 0.5%, it is 5% less than Biden’s lead at the same time. Trump never led in polling in the final three months.
This election season, Trump has led the polls numerous times since early August.
In 2020, Biden was polling 5.3% ahead of Trump on Election Day. Yet, he won by only 2.4%.
North Carolina
North Carolina is particularly interesting. It has been the focus of both campaigns over the last few weeks, and Democrats believe they can win the state for the first time since Barack Obama won it in 2008.
Trump outperformed the polls here both four and eight years ago, winning the state twice.
In 2020, Biden was polling 1.8% ahead of Trump going into Election Day and lost by 1.3%. The Democrat never trailed in the final months, and was 1.2% ahead at this same time.
Trump has led all four polls in the last week since his debate against Harris, and his consensus lead is a slim 0.3%.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Harris is polling 3% behind where Biden was polling at this point in 2020. She is leading Trump by 1.4%, while Biden was leading him by 4.8%.
On Election Day, Biden was nearly 5% ahead of Trump, and won by 1.2%.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Trump has significantly narrowed Harris’ recent lead.
At this point in 2020, Biden was leading by 6.7%, but he eventually finished on Election Day with polling a whopping 8.4% ahead of Trump. He won by just 0.8%.
This time around, Harris is ahead only 1.6%, or within the margin of error. Since August, Trump has slowly been narrowing her lead over him.
