Former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over rival Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to the issues voters are most concerned about: inflation and illegal immigration.
That’s according to the results of The Center Square’s Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, and released Wednesday. The poll is one of only six national tracking polls in the United States.
Harris is gaining ground on Trump on the third top issue: the economy and job, thought Trump still holds the trust advantage among voters.
Likely voters are more concerned about inflation (47%) and illegal immigration (40%) than the economy (32%). Other top issues for voters were abortion rights (26%), crime (22%), climate change (18%), healthcare access (18%), government corruption (16%) and national debt and government spending (14%).
David Byler, of Noble Predictive Insights, said Harris has largely gotten a pass on inflation, an issue voters associated more closely with President Joe Biden.
“What you see now is a much tighter race between Harris and Trump than it ever was between [Trump] and Biden,” he said. “Biden was largely blamed for rising prices and for rising inflation.”
Despite being the vice president during Biden’s term, when inflation spiked to a 40-year high, voters are more optimistic about Harris, Byler said.
“Bottom line was that voters aren’t holding Harris quite as responsible for inflation as they held Biden, and this is one of her big points of improvement over Biden as a candidate,” he said. “[Harris] is improving on Biden’s numbers against Trump on economic issues like inflation and like taxes, and that’s a big explainer for why she’s got the Democratic base back and why this has gone from Trump winning the popular vote to Harris narrowly leading.”
After the U.S. Supreme Court sent the abortion issues back to the states with the Dobbs decision, Republicans lost some interest in the abortion issue, at least compared to other priorities, Byler said.
“So immigration is really one of the key salient social issues with an economic angle to it as well,” he said.
Trump has made illegal immigration a top priority for his campaign as he seeks a second term in the White House. He has called Harris’ border policies soft and blamed her for an influx of people from other countries, more than 14 million since Biden-Harris took office, The Center Square reported. Trump has also promised tough border policies and mass deportations.
Trump never succeeded on mass deportations during his first term. On both issues, Congress will have its say, which could blunt or block Trump’s policies if the former president is re-elected, depending on who controls the U.S. House and Senate.
Illegal immigration has gotten more attention as border states such as Arizona and Texas have sent busloads of migrants to cities around the country. Texas has bused more than 102,000 migrants to sanctuary cities including New York, Chicago and Denver, among others.
Harris opposed many border security measures Trump implemented, including building a border wall. As “border czar” under Biden, and as the administration reversed many of Trump’s security measures, Harris has overseen a massive surge in illegal immigration.
Total illegal border crossings surpassed 14 million from the beginning of their term through September, by far a record compared to any other administration, The Center Square reported. Since replacing Biden at the top of the ticket, Harris now says those who illegally cross the border should face “consequences.” She now also says she supports building a border wall, a reversal from her past position.
Noble Predictive Insights conducted the poll from Oct 2-4, 2024. The sample included 2,560 respondents comprised of 1,135 Republicans, 1,162 Democrats, and 263 True Independents (Independents who, when asked if they leaned toward one of the major parties, chose neither). Of the full sample of registered voters, 2,290 were qualified as “likely voters.”
The poll weighted each party – Republicans, Democrats, and True Independents – independently. Additional weighting variables include age, region, gender, education, and race/ethnicity.
The margin of error was +/- 1.9% for registered voters and +/-2.1% for likely voters.
