Editor’s note: This is part of a series on the June 2 primary election in California.
(The Center Square) – As the Golden State’s voters prepare for the June 2 primary election, California’s legislators spoke with The Center Square about whether the state’s November 2025 redistricting election would ultimately benefit blue or red politicians.
Democratic lawmakers said they’re confident the California Democratic Party is on track to pick up five new seats in the U.S. House this November, but that they’re not taking for granted races where Republican candidates could have an advantage. Some races, like Congressional District 11 and Congressional District 48, have a large number of Democratic candidates, which could potentially split up the Democratic vote.
“I do think it’s something to consider, but we’re in a blue state,” Assemblymember Sade Elhawary, D-Los Angeles, told The Center Square.
”I think there will be a Democrat that pulls ahead of everyone else,” Elhawary said about the races in general. “I do think it’s something to definitely consider and not take for granted.”
Assemblymember Marc Berman, D-Palo Alto, told The Center Square that he believes Democrats are going to be elected to the newly-drawn, left-leaning congressional districts.
“When Californians who are struggling with the cost of living see a president who’s more interested in building a billion-dollar ballroom while waging a foreign war that is directly increasing the cost of their lives, I think more and more people, Democrats and Republicans, are getting frustrated by that,” Berman said. “I do think when voters get the opportunity to express their frustration, they’re going to take advantage of that.”
Where Republican candidates have an advantage, Assemblymember David Tangipa, R-Fresno, told The Center Square, is the ability to raise more money in their campaign committees than Democratic candidates.
“The biggest area where I see an advantage for the Republicans right now is something we haven’t seen before, and it is the cash advantage that Republicans have,” Tangipa, a leader in the Republican party’s lawsuit against the Newsom administration over the Prop. 50 election, told The Center Square. “Even President Trump’s committee itself has more money than the Democratic National Committee, and I think that’s something not a lot of people are paying attention to. Apparently, right now, the Republicans in charge have a significant cash advantage. Typically, that does not happen.”
California, the second state to push forward in mid-decade redistricting, held its special Prop. 50 election last year, following Texas enacting its own redistricting effort. Since California’s voters approved new congressional voting district maps that will be in use in the June 2 primary and the November 2026 midterm elections, many other states across the country have engaged in redistricting. Among them are Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee and North Carolina.
Democratic candidates in some heavily left-leaning districts have raised more money for their campaigns than Republicans. That includes state Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, who is running for outgoing U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s seat in District 11. Wiener has received $3.5 million in campaign contributions so far, and U.S. Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, who is running for reelection, has received $2.93 million in the District 13 race. Wiener and Gray have both raised more money than the Republicans and other Democrats in their districts.
However, Michelle Steel, a Republican candidate for Congressional District 45, received $1.22 million in campaign contributions so far, according to the Federal Election Commission. Kevin J. Lincoln II, a Republican candidate for Congressional District 13, has so far received $1.1 million toward his campaign, Federal Election Commission filings show. Steel and Lincoln raised more money than the Democrats and other Republicans in their districts.
Tangipa, meanwhile, said he wasn’t so sure Democrats will pick up the five seats they anticipate.
“The Democrats may have created more technically blue-leaning seats. But the big threat that happens is you never know how much you dilute the vote, and if the people will generally show up or not,” Tangipa told The Center Square. He said the Democrats’ success will depend a lot on turnout.
Because of redistricting, vulnerable congressional districts include District 6, in which U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley is running. Kiley, an independent who caucuses with Republicans, is still polling above his competitors in that race, at 36%, according to an EMC Research poll. A Republican candidate for Congressional District 22, David Valadao, is polling ahead of his competitors in that race, at 44%, according to a Data for Progress poll. That puts him ahead of his Democratic counterparts, Randy Villegas, at 25%, and current California State Assemblymember Jasmeet Kaur Bains, at 21%.
A Tulchin Research poll shows that in the race for Congressional District 40, Democrat Esther Kim-Varet is in a dead heat with two congressional incumbents – U.S. Reps. Ken Calvert, R-Palm Desert and Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim. When polled against each other, Kim-Varet and Calvert are tied with 44% of the support. Young Kim fares a bit better in that scenario, with 44% for Young Kim and 43% for Kim-Varet.
Voting centers will be open May 23 to June 1 in Voter’s Choice Act counties and May 30 to June 1 elsewhere. Voters should check with their counties for further details.
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. June 2, Election Day. For more information, go to the Secretary of State’s website, sos.ca.gov. Early election results will be published on the evening of June 2 at www.thecentersquare.com/california.
