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Competitive House races favored Democrats headed into election day

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(The Center Square) — The House of Delegates returned to a Democratic majority early Wednesday morning after a hiatus that afforded Gov. Glenn Youngkin some support in the General Assembly.

Democrats held the House from 2019-21, creating a Democratic trifecta while Ralph Northam was governor. Republicans occupied the better part of the 100-member House for a decade before 2019, but after redistricting in 2021, Democrats had a slight advantage heading into Tuesday’s election. They were favored to win 48 races to Republicans’ 45, with seven highly competitive seats determining the outcome of the general election.

Both parties took all the seats they were projected to win, and though Republicans likely won four of the most competitive districts, it wasn’t enough to dislodge Democrats from their favored position.

There was no clear, consistent theme uniting winners or losers in the seven contested races – except none ended with candidates more than 2,200 votes apart, and in any male-female match-ups, the male candidate won. Otherwise, both Democrats and Republicans, white and Black and older and younger candidates won and lost.

The closest race, still undecided, was District 82, mostly comprised of Dinwiddie and Prince George counties and Petersburg. Youngkin’s Partnership for Petersburg and his strong endorsement of Republican incumbent Kim Taylor didn’t seem to work to her advantage.

Petersburg, a heavily Democratic city, cast its vote (over 86%) for Democratic newcomer Kimberly Adams. With over 95% of the district’s votes tallied, Taylor has a thin lead over Adams of just 0.82% – less than the 1% margin within which Virginia allows recounts if requested.

But Taylor declared victory Tuesday night, posting an official statement to X at 11:30 p.m. and calling District 82 “Virginia’s most competitive House of Delegates district.”

“Taylor’s victory comes as voters throughout the 82nd House of Delegates district resonated with the kitchen table issues that were a focus of Delegate Taylor’s campaign and her proven record fighting for them in Richmond,” the statement said.

Adams has not conceded.

The next-closest races were for a Chesapeake and Suffolk district, part of Prince William County and Western Henrico County. Republican Baxter Ennis bested Democrat Karen Jenkins by just over 2.6% in Chesapeake; Democrat Josh Thomas beat Republican John Stirrup by a little more than 3%, perhaps in part due to news during the election season that Stirrup truly preferred a total ban on abortion to the governor’s 15-week-ban he had touted. Republican David Owen beat Democrat Susanna Gibson, whose campaign contributions decreased after news came out in September that she and her husband performed sex acts online for tips.

The clearest victory went to Democrat Michael Feggans in Virginia Beach, who unseated Republican incumbent Karen Greenhalgh by almost 8%.

Republican Ian Lovejoy and Democrat Joshua Cole beat their challengers in District 22, another Prince William County district, and Fredericksburg district, District 65, respectively – by more than 5%.

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