(The Center Square) – Democrat incumbent Don Davis is facing off against Republican Laurie Buckhout for the U.S. House seat in North Carolina’s District 1.
The race is proving to be a competitive one as millions of dollars pour into the race. Buckhout is especially facing an uphill climb, as a Republican has not represented the district since 1883.
The Hill, in partnership with DecisionDesk HQ, predicts that Davis has a 76% chance of winning the district.
That prediction is updated every day and is based on the latest polling, in conjunction with other factors like the political leanings of the district and the favorability of particular candidates. Davis’ chances of winning have remained steady, according to The Hill.
Yet, the race is still considered a toss-up by many, and Davis’ reelection campaign was named fifth most-vulnerable in the country by Roll Call.
Located in the northeastern part of the state, U.S. House District 1 largely consists of rural counties, as well as some suburbs of the state’s capital, Raleigh.
In the last 10 years, the district has been redrawn twice after courts ruled that it was gerrymandered along racial lines. In 2022, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled in favor of a new map that finalized the boundaries of District 1.
The district is one of 37 congressional districts with a Democratic incumbent or an open seat that the National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting in 2024, according to Ballotpedia.
With all 435 U.S. House seats up for election in November, Republicans are looking to grow their current slim majority. On Friday, the chamber had 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats and four vacancies.
With the race considered so competitive, the two candidates have raised nearly $6 million between them.
The campaign of Davis, first elected in 2022, has brought in $3.17 million, compared to Buckhout’s $2.61 million. Going into the final few months of the election, Davis had $2.62 million still to spend, while Buckhout had $600,000.
This is all according to campaign finance data provided to the Federal Election Commission.
Out-of-state funding has proven very beneficial for the Davis campaign.
The top states that were the sources of individual contributions for Davis are New York, California and Massachusetts. Between those three states, Davis raised $923,000. North Carolina was number four, coming in at $166,000.
For Buckhout, North Carolina is the top source for individual contributions at $563,000.
Davis and Buckhout are running with very different ideological visions for the state.
Both are veterans and support the military. These issues are also especially important in the state, where military and defense industries are the second-largest employers.
Yet, there are many other issues they are divided on.
For Davis, his priorities include accessible health care, women’s rights and health, equity and justice, and the environment.
Buckhout touts “securing our border,” “fixing our broken economy,” and protecting the Second Amendment all as top concerns.
She has labeled Davis as a “radical Democrat,” while remaining hopeful for her chances to “make history” by flipping District 1.
In 2022, Davis won the seat by 5%, or just over 12,000 votes. Compared to 2018, when the Democrat won by 39%, Republicans are quickly closing the gap in District 1.
Davis is confident in his chances at success.
“I am on a mission to restore hope to eNC and we intend to keep fighting,” Davis said on social media. “I am confident we have a path to victory, and together, we will win.”
