(The Center Square) – As early voting began on Monday for runoff elections statewide, a new poll indicates Republicans running for U.S. Senate are statistically tied.
Early voting began Monday and goes through Friday, May 22.
The runoff election is Tuesday, May 26.
Multiple races are on the ballot due to redistricting, new congressional seats and more than a dozen open seats due to members retiring. The top and most contentious Republican races are for U.S. Senate, Texas attorney general and Railroad Commission.
A recent University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton nearly statistically tied in the U.S. Senate race.
It also showed state Sen. Mayes Middleton leading U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the AG race and RCC Commissioner Jim Wright leading former Tarrant County GOP chair Bo French, The Center Square reported. The RCC regulates the Texas oil and natural gas industry.
A new poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University also indicates that Paxton and Cornyn are statistically tied. Texas races this year “are closer than you think,” the report states.
The poll also found that Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico has a chance at winning the U.S. Senate seat. Among likely voters polled, 45% said they’d vote for Cornyn and 44% for Talarico; 45% said they’d vote for Paxton and 45% for Talarico in November. Other polls have shown that Cornyn has a better chance at defeating Talarico in November.
Cornyn has received the most endorsements from pastors, law enforcement, state lawmakers and others who argue that his seniority in the U.S. Senate is an invaluable asset to Texas. They also support his years of supporting border security. Critics of Paxton point to numerous scandals throughout his tenure including multiple affairs, an impeachment trial and ongoing fallout involving litigation among his former staff as liabilities.
Paxton and his supporters argue Cornyn isn’t conservative, is part of an establishment in Washington, D.C., and has been in the Senate for too long and Paxton will bring new insight.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton for Senate based on his perception of loyalty. He said, “John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough.” Paxton is “someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT,” Trump said. The endorsement primarily lists Trump’s perception of his own accomplishments.
The poll also points to an expected high Democratic voter turnout in November. This is consistent with Democrats outvoting Republicans in the March 3 primary and several special elections, The Center Square reported.
In these elections, Democrats outvoted Republicans by large margins and flipped a state Senate seat blue in a Republican stronghold, The Center Square reported. Talarico also raised more than $40 million, more than any U.S. Senate candidate in U.S. history, The Center Square reported.
Gov. Greg Abbott has been holding “get out the vote” rallies statewide and supporting state legislative candidates. The funds “Talarico has amassed will be unleashed to get Democrats to the polls in every corner of Texas,” he argues. “The Democrats are not sitting this one out. They are targeting our candidates with a level of resources this state has never seen.”
In the AG race, Middleton, who’s received the most and high-level endorsements, is highlighting his accomplishments in the state legislature. They include property tax and regulatory reform, prolife, pro-women’s and girl’s protections, “MAHA” reforms among others.
In the RCC race, Wright has also received the most endorsements from the industry and from high level officials. His platform includes regulatory reform and policies supporting the Texas oil and gas industry, water conservation, combatting organized crime, including oil field theft, among others.
By contrast, Roy and French have largely made their platforms about a purported “Islamic takeover of Texas,” shutting down mosques and Islamic centers, banning some Islamists from purchasing property in Texas and deporting them.
Texas companies and regulators have had longstanding relationships with Middle Eastern countries where oil and natural gas operations are based. Houston-based ExxonMobil operates two of three core ventures in Saudi Arabia, which is considered the largest oil and natural gas venture in the world. The state also licenses and regulates major employers in Texas like Saudi-Aramco, which owns and operates refineries in Texas.
Local governments in Texas have been approving the construction of mosques and purchasing of property by Islamic centers for decades, viewing them as protected under the First Amendment and state property rights laws. Shaimaa Zayan, operations manager at the Council on American Islamic Relations-Austin, Texas, told The Center Square that increasing anti-Muslim sentiment among some Republicans in Texas is a form of religious persecution.
