(The Center Square) – Ohio’s expected $37 billion Medicaid cut could reduce the labor force, close hospitals and significantly impact the economy, the majority of a panel of state economists believe.
The cuts come from President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he signed into law July 4.
As previously reported by The Center Square, the budget reconciliation package is expected to increase the national deficit by around $4 trillion over the next decade, while reducing federal Medicaid spending by $1 trillion.
The act, which did not receive any support from Democrats in Congress, includes reforms to both Medicaid and SNAP programs. According to the Center for American Progress, more than 10 million people nationwide will lose Medicaid coverage by 2034 due to new eligibility requirements.
The new law imposes requirements for work, volunteering or education for able-bodied adults by Jan. 1, 2027. Ohio has already applied for a waiver to require work for Medicaid.
It also requires states to evaluate again people covered by Medicaid, eliminates coverage for some legal noncitizens and reduces retroactive coverage from two months to one.
In Ohio, the cuts are projected to reach $37 billion over the next decade.
Ohio economists, according to a new survey from Scioto Analysis, believe the ramifications could be significant.
All but one of the 20 economists asked believe the impact will stretch beyond the loss of health insurance for those currently on Medicaid.
“Denying health care may reduce the supply of labor,” said Charles Kroncke, of Mount Saint Joseph University. “If people are unhealthy, they will not be able to work.”
Bob Gitter, of Ohio Wesleyan University, echoed that idea.
“More sick time, potential job losses due to missed time at work, and potential closing of rural hospitals,” Gitter said.
Despite the concerns, only a little more than half of the economists surveyed believe the cuts will lead to a recession.
Christian Imboden of Bowling Green University said $37 billion “over 10 years or $3.7 per year is about a third of a percent of Ohio’s annual GDP, unlikely to create a recession, especially a big one. However, it could contribute to a recession caused by something more major.”
