(The Center Square) – A new report from a Federal Reserve branch says 2024 could see millions of illegal border crossings.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates that 3.8 million undocumented immigrants will enter the U.S. in fiscal year 2024 at January’s rates, and notes its contrast with the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate in January that 3.3 million total immigrants will enter the country in the same time frame.
Last month, President Joe Biden announced a sweeping plan for illegal border crossers, while also issuing an executive order claiming to limit the number of illegal entries to a certain number a day, which former Border Patrol chiefs quickly labeled “political theater.” Biden did so after a Senate bill failed to gain the support of Democrats and critics identified measures in it that actually would increase illegal entries and expand amnesty, The Center Square reported.
The reports don’t take into account the roughly two million “gotaways,” or those who have illegally entered to intentionally evade capture, The Center Square first reported. With 12 million illegal border crossers since January 2021, costs to taxpayers outweigh any employment gains, critics argue. The U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security has issued several reports, including one estimating over $450 billion in costs to taxpayers and another highlighting nearly $2 billion in wasted taxpayer money.
By comparing the states’ number of immigration court cases with the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, the Federal Reserve’s report estimated higher levels of illegal immigration — using CBO methods but with more recent data — and found recent immigration spikes are responsible for approximately one fifth of the decline in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals. Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director said the United States’ “abundant labor coming across the border” means ‘wages are not pushing up,” suggesting that high migration levels are reducing wage growth.
“The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants” wrote Federal Reserve author Evgeniya A. Duzhak. “Analysis linking the revised estimates for this group to labor market statistics shows that immigrants joining the workforce are likely to have modestly eased labor market tightness.”
Duzhak’s study also found that Florida, New York, Texas and California received the highest volume of immigration cases in 2023 and 2023. In per capita terms, however, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Utah, and Colorado were the highest, suggesting these states may have had the relatively highest labor market changes from migration.
The Federal Reserve and CBO reports have been seen by critics as politically motivated to support a narrative used by Democrats and open border advocates that there aren’t enough American workers for jobs and cheap, illegal labor is needed. Unemployment claims refute this argument, as more Americans are losing their jobs due to inflationary economic factors, and layoffs and company closures continue.
