The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment warns that, “Over the next year, the terrorism threat environment in the Homeland will remain high.”
It’s expected to remain high because of “a confluence of factors, including potential violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments – particularly the 2024 election cycle – and international events like the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
“Lone offenders and small groups continue to pose the greatest threat. Meanwhile, foreign terrorist organizations, including ISIS and al Qa’ida, maintain their enduring intent to conduct or inspire attacks in the Homeland,” DHS said in a Wednesday announcement.
The report notes that DHS officials are “particularly concerned” about “domestic and foreign violent extremists” who will use the U.S. November election or the Israel-Hamas war “to justify or encourage attacks in the Homeland. Lone offenders and small groups continue to pose the greatest threat of carrying out attacks with little to no warning.
“Meanwhile, foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and their supporters will maintain their enduring intent to conduct or inspire attacks in the Homeland.”
Looking into 2025, the threat of violence from US-based violent extremists – including domestic violence extremists (DVEs) and foreign terrorist organization-inspired homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) – will remain high, DHS says.
Between September 2023 and July 2024, DVEs conducted at least four attacks in the US; several were disrupted by law enforcement. Two HVE attacks occurred related to the Israel-Hamas war and law enforcement disrupted at least three HVE plots, DHS says.
It notes that over the past year, DVEs focused on a range of targets whereas HVEs targeted faith-based organizations.
“HAMAS’s terrorist attack against Israel on 7 October 2023 and the subsequent conflict between Israel and HAMAS and its regional allies have spurred violent extremists across the ideological spectrum to promote attacks against Jewish, Muslim, Christian, and Arab communities in the United States,” it notes.
The report was released after a Florida-based international rescue group issued a warning for Americans to remain vigilant in the likelihood that terrorist attacks could occur ahead of the Jewish holidays, leading up to the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack against Israel, and the U.S. November election, The Center Square reported.
The 46-page DHS assessment evaluated threats related to terrorism, “increasing complexities straining the immigration system, transnational organized crime, proliferating cyber threats, and geopolitical strategic competition.”
DHS says the U.S. “will face threats to public safety from state actors using subversive tactics in an effort to influence and divide the American public and undermine confidence in our institutions,” including the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It says the PRC is targeting “political dissidents and journalists in the United States to silence and harass critical voices, violating our sovereignty and the rule of law.”
It notes that the 2024 election cycle “will be an attractive target for many adversaries.”
Former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has so far been hacked by Iranian actors, and three assassination attempts have been foiled, including by a Pakistani man with ties to Iran. He was also recently briefed on an Iranian assassination plot.
DHS states that some domestic violent extremists may have identified targets for violence with the goal of “instilling fear among voters, candidates, and election workers, as well as disrupting election processes leading up to and after the November election. Nation-state-aligned foreign malign influence actors almost certainly will continue to target democratic processes with the aims of affecting US voter preferences, exacerbating social tensions, and undermining confidence in our democratic institutions and the integrity of the electoral process.”
It also notes that U.S. adversaries “almost certainly will continue to threaten the integrity of our critical infrastructure with disruptive and destructive cyber and physical attacks,” including by the PRC, Russia, and Iran. These countries “will remain the most pressing foreign threats to our critical infrastructure,” the report states, adding that DHS expects the PRC “to continue its efforts to pre-position on US networks for potential cyber-attacks in the event of a conflict with the United States.”
DHS warns that China will likely “remain our greatest economic security threat because of its aggressive use of anticompetitive, coercive policies and theft of US intellectual property, technology, and trade secrets” and supply chains will remain vulnerable to foreign manipulation abroad.
The report was also issued after the U.S. House Committee on Oversight subpoenaed DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for information about Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz’s alleged connections to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
