Since announcing in April 2023 plans to run for a second term, President Joe Biden has been the presumptive Democratic candidate in the 2024 race for the White House. How he fares on Election Day will largely hinge on Americans’ assessment of his job performance during his first four years in office, and so far, public opinion has not been moving in Biden’s favor.
According to survey and data services company Morning Consult, Biden had the approval of a majority of American voters throughout the first eight months of his presidency. However, in the last two years, Biden’s approval rating has been underwater, with a larger share of Americans disapproving of the job he is doing.
The shift in public opinion toward the Biden administration began immediately following the August 2021 withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Though the decision to end the U.S. military presence in the country was a popular one, the administration’s execution was widely criticized, as it ultimately resulted in a refugee crisis and the re-ascension of the Taliban. Perceptions of Biden’s job performance have not fully recovered, and since taking office, Biden’s approval rating has fallen in each of the 50 states.
In Arizona, Biden’s approval rating stood at 40% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 51% when he first took office in the first quarter of 2021. The 11 percentage point decline was the 22nd smallest among states.
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won Arizona with 49.4% of the popular vote, according to The Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan, political analysis newsletter.
All data in this story is from Morning Consult, a public opinion data research company. States were ranked by percentage the point change in the share of registered voters who approve of Biden’s job as president from the beginning of his term in the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2023, the most recent available data.
State2-yr. PP. change in approvalQ1 2023 approval (%)Q1 2021 pproval (%)2020 election winnerBiden share of vote in 2020 (%)Alabama-93140Trump36.6Alaska-44347Trump42.8Arizona-114051Biden49.4Arkansas-112940Trump34.8California-105464Biden63.5Colorado-144357Biden55.4Connecticut-114960Biden59.3Delaware-164662Biden58.7Florida-123951Trump47.9Georgia-104353Biden49.5Hawaii-75360Biden63.7Idaho-63339Trump33.1Illinois-94958Biden57.5Indiana-93443Trump41.0Iowa-153348Trump44.9Kansas-113546Trump41.6Kentucky-93140Trump36.2Louisiana-103747Trump39.9Maine-134053Biden53.1Maryland-145266Biden65.4Massachusetts-155065Biden65.6Michigan-114152Biden50.6Minnesota-114354Biden52.4Mississippi-113546Trump41.1Missouri-113445Trump41.4Montana-43842Trump40.5Nebraska-93140Trump39.4Nevada-114152Biden50.1New Hampshire-104252Biden52.7New Jersey-144559Biden57.3New Mexico-144458Biden54.3New York-125062Biden60.9North Carolina-113950Trump48.6North Dakota-152540Trump31.8Ohio-113748Trump45.2Oklahoma-63036Trump32.3Oregon-114657Biden56.5Pennsylvania-114152Biden50.0Rhode Island-104858Biden59.4South Carolina-93746Trump43.4South Dakota-63339Trump35.6Tennessee-83442Trump37.5Texas-113849Trump46.5Utah-133245Trump37.6Vermont-155166Biden66.1Virginia-124456Biden54.1Washington-114960Biden58.0West Virginia-82533Trump29.7Wisconsin-94251Biden49.4Wyoming-32730Trump26.6
