(The Center Square) — The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, a key marker of inflation, which showed an increase of 0.3% last month.
Since inflation nearly always rises, what economists look for is not whether or not it rose, but how quickly it rose. These latest numbers came in as experts expected.
“This was as expected, consistent with a very gradual slowing, and ~2.5% underlying inflation,” Harvard economic professor and former advisor to President Barack Obama, Jason Furman wrote on X.
The index rose 2.5% from the same time last year, 2.6% when excluding food and energy costs. Economists had hoped inflation would have come down more by now, but the figures are still far lower than the rapid inflation rates seen during the Biden administration.
“Nothing in these data change the narrative much. Inflation appears to be gently slowing and that could give optimists hope that it will continue to do so,” Furman added. “But core inflation is also stuck above 2.5% — much higher than the 2.1% that forecasters had expected just a year ago.”
Notably, personal income rose 0.9% in January while personal spending decreased and personal savings rose.
“This is the ultimate double-edged sword report: PCE came in line with expectations and is relatively good news, but Personal Spending came in much lower than expected and is cause for concern, because of the steep drop in consumption,” Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, N.C., said in a statement.
“Given how sanguine investors are about the economy – assuming GDP will stay above 2% for the foreseeable future – and how concerned they are about inflation remaining sticky, we are at risk of an out-of-consensus situation, where we may be experiencing a deteriorating economy with inflation that will be less of an issue than is currently feared,” he added.
