(The Center Square) — Another pre-shooting poll conducted before the New York Times/Siena College poll, whose results were released Monday, shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump flip-flopped, with Trump leading Biden by 3%.
Virginia Commonwealth University’s Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll, conducted between June 24 and July 3, revealed 39% of respondents indicating they would vote for Trump if they had to vote then and 36% saying they would vote for Biden. The Times/Siena College poll, conducted in the days just prior to the assassination attempt, July 9-12, showed Trump trailing Biden 48%- 45%.
Of particular interest was Biden’s results among Black Virginians, which had drastically declined since December.
“I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency,” said L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, a professor at VCU and after whom the college’s School of Government and Public Affairs is named.
“The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, particular in competitive districts 7 and 2,” Wilder said.
Incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans is running for reelection with a Trump endorsement in U.S. House District 2 against Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. In District 7, Democrat and Trump whistleblower Eugene Vindman is running against Republican primary nominee Derrick Anderson for Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s open seat.
Trump’s narrow lead in the poll did not translate to a universal Republican edge throughout – though another seeming reversal among Black Virginians did emerge.
Just as Biden’s approval rating took a dive among Black Virginians from December to July, Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating among the same demographic rose almost correspondingly – though it fell overall.
Other data collected in the Commonwealth Poll indicated that public opinion ranged on several questions that respondents could easily answer along party lines.
Biden’s 36% approval rating in Virginia mirrored other national polls and was consistent with earlier Roanoke College polls. However, more than half of Virginia voters (53%) said they were less likely to vote for Trump due to his recent criminal conviction.
“In particular,” VCU noted in a press release sharing the results of the poll, “almost half of Independents (45%) in Virginia say they are less likely to vote for [Trump].”
As referenced above, Youngkin’s approval ratings declined from the 54% he captured in the Winter Commonwealth Poll to 50%.
Despite his Trump endorsement, Republican primary nominee and Senate hopeful Hung Cao is trailing incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine by 11%. Cao was also the Republican nominee for U.S. House District 10 in 2022 but lost by 6.5% to incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton.
Cost of living remained the most important issue for voters, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration, with most Virginia voters (52%) “[seeing] the country’s immigration system as a major problem,” according to the release.
