Election integrity in the United States has been one of the most heavily discussed topics over the past four years, for good reason. Our once-impervious electoral processes have been subverted for nearly two decades due to the exponentially increasing degree of absentee voting, a far less secure method than traditional, in-person voting. This trend reached its crescendo in the 2020 election, when approximately 65.5 million ballots were cast by mail, galvanizing legitimate questions about whether fraud may have contaminated the results of the election.
Since nearly every concern over the integrity of the 2020 election has publicly originated from Republicans – due, of course, to the fact that it was the Republican presidential candidate who lost – society has generally assumed that it is only conservative voters who care about shoring up our voting processes.
However, new research provides a significant challenge to that assumption.
A new poll from The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports has revealed that a whopping 62 percent of Americans are either somewhat or very concerned that cheating will affect the outcome of the 2024 election. If 62 percent of the electorate is concerned about election fraud, this is clearly not a partisan issue. A deeper dive into the poll’s crosstab data indicates that such concern is felt by individuals at all ends of the ideological and demographic spectrums.
As one might expect, 78 percent of respondents identifying as Republicans expressed concern that cheating will affect the outcome of the 2024 election. What I imagine would surprise most readers, however, is that 50 percent of Democrats expressed the same fears, indicating strong public consensus on this issue. The poll illustrates similar consensus among demographic groups that historically vote more in favor of Democrats as opposed to Republicans: 61 percent of women, 54 percent of young voters (ages 18-39), 62 percent of black voters, and 63 percent of Hispanic voters expressed the same concerns, as did strong majorities of voters of all income brackets, levels of education, and localities.
Undoubtedly, it is highly concerning that such a substantial number of American voters are concerned about the integrity of our electoral system – the bedrock of any free and democratic society.
It is equally concerning that such a high number of Americans have already admitted to submitting illegal ballots in 2020 and have directly stated they would do so again in 2024. A February 2024 report by The Heartland Institute – which analyzed a December 2023 Heartland/Rasmussen poll in further detail – found that 28.2 percent of mail-in voters admitted to submitting illegal ballots in 2020. A follow-up Heartland/Rasmussen poll conducted in April 2024 found that 28 percent of all voters intended to cheat in order to help their preferred candidate win the 2024 election. Importantly, the crosstabs of both polls indicate that Democrats and Republicans were equally likely to have submitted illegal ballots in 2020 and to cheat in 2024, providing a strong reason for bipartisan cooperation and resolution.
Though the results of these polls are highly problematic, to say the least, the fact that Democrat and Republican voters alike have recognized this problem provides a reason for optimism. Election integrity should not, and cannot, be a partisan issue. History has shown time again that without public confidence in election results, societies devolve rapidly – and it seems like the United States is moving further in that direction every day.
With a majority of voters in both preeminent political parties clearly expressing their fears about the ability for the United States to conduct secure elections and produce a result unmarred by fraud, it is past time for policymakers to come together and act. If nothing else, these poll results should provide Democrat legislators with the political cover they might need to join their Republican colleagues and return our electoral system to its roots: secure, in-person voting with paper ballots – like the vast majority of other countries. Exceptions should, of course, continue to be provided for those with physical disabilities who are unable to travel.
If requiring most voters to submit ballots in person is somehow untenable, then Democrat and Republican legislators must join forces to overhaul the absentee ballot system. There are many ways to provide greater security around mail-in ballots, the most effective of which would be requiring mail-in voters to have their ballot verified by a notary.
Unfortunately, it is too late at this point to sufficiently fix our electoral system in time for the 2024 election. Some states have taken important steps to do so, but the vast majority – including most battleground states – have not. Because of this lack of action from our elected officials, there will almost certainly be questions about whether the election was secure, regardless of who wins. This will necessarily come with significant sociopolitical discord and further erosion of confidence in our country’s failing democratic institutions.
With that in mind, we must set our sights past the 2024 election, to the future. Despite the hyperbolic vitriol emanating from both sides of the political aisle, our constitutional republic is not going to completely disintegrate and turn into a left- or right-wing autocracy if either the Democrat or Republican presidential candidate takes power. There are still sufficient checks and balances in place to prevent such a scenario, if either candidate tried. There will continue to be elections.
Those future elections must be widely seen as legitimate, however. Our republic cannot survive if well more than half of the electorate continues to believe that our electoral processes are not secure and are plagued by fraud, which disenfranchises every single voter.
