During the first few weeks of Operation Epic Fury, many prematurely predicted that Russia would benefit from the conflict. With U.S. weapons originally bound for Ukraine diverted to the Gulf, the price of crude oil skyrocketing, and the sanctions on Russian oil being lifted, it seemed that Russia would seize the upper hand over Ukraine. However, war is unpredictable, and the current American conflict in Iran may have given President Volodymyr Zelensky an advantage.
Since Russia’s 2022 assault, Ukraine has developed effective and relatively inexpensive methods to counter Iranian-made missiles and drones which the Kremlin buys and uses against Ukraine. Kyiv’s interceptors can be produced in bulk at a lower price than the missiles they target. With experience and integration with existing air defenses, the Ukrainian interceptors are a cost-effective way for Iran’s targets to defend themselves.
In response to the Gulf States’ rapid depletion of their supplies, President Zelensky has negotiated deals with Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to provide interceptors, giving Ukraine the funding to produce adequate weapons stocks.
Zelensky arrived just in time, as Iran rebuilt its drone manufacturing capability faster than anticipated and Patriot air defense systems remain backlogged. Ukraine went from minimal drone production at the start of its current conflict to being one of the world’s leading producers of the technology, recently signing joint deals with Germany and the U.S. – both hoping to learn from Ukraine’s extensive warfighting experience.
Additionally, after the West lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles and drones deep into Russian territory, Kyiv began targeting Russian oil transit infrastructure and refineries, including in Central Russia where nearly all major oil refineries have been forced to suspend or reduce fuel production. It is estimated that Ukraine has destroyed 40% of Russia’s export infrastructure, preventing Putin from reaping the economic benefits of Operation Epic Fury.
Without processing and export capacity, the expected surging revenues from oil sales that Moscow had hoped would jumpstart its stalling economy never materialized. Weakened by Ukraine’s long-range attacks on energy infrastructure, years of sanctions, high inflation and failure to secure a gas pipeline deal with President Xi, the Russian economic decline continues.
These setbacks, combined with the Ukraine conflict lasting much longer than Russia initially expected, has caused panic in the Kremlin. Earlier this month, President Vladmir Putin scaled back the country’s annual Victory Day Parade due to fears of Ukrainian strikes. Responding to potential unrest, the Kremlin suspended internet coverage in major cities across the nation, sparking outrage – especially among Russia’s elites. Clearly, Russians are growing impatient with the toll the war has taken on the country, in terms of blood and treasure.
Four years into its conflict against Ukraine, Russia seemed on the verge of a breakthrough. Kyiv’s brilliant military and public diplomacy strategy facilitated by the unintended consequences of Operation Epic Fury, may have boosted Ukraine’s chances of prevailing against Russia and enabled it to demonstrate to allies that it is more of a strategic asset than liability.
