(The Center Square) – Unseating an incumbent governor is historically considered an uphill battle for any candidate, even when the party clears the primary field for a single nominee.
It’s much harder still when that governor happens to be Josh Shapiro, a popular Democrat once under consideration as Kamala Harris’s running mate and long-rumored to run for president in 2028.
Treasurer Stacy Garrity, however, hopes to do just that.
“Josh Shapiro has failed us,” Garrity said during the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference at the Penn Harris Hotel in Camp Hill on Friday. “But somehow he believes he deserves a promotion.”
“He is more focused on his personal political ambition than fixing the problems that Pennsylvanians are facing today,” she added.
Garrity also recalled a story that former President Ronald Reagan would deliver on the campaign trail about how voters’ eyes were “opening,” and likened it to the momentum she believes that she’s gaining.
Polling and national ratings outlets, however, paint a challenging road ahead.
Susquehanna Polling and Research conducted a survey March 9-17 that showed Shapiro leading Garrity by 22 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Feb. 19-23 had Shapiro leading Garrity by 18 points.
On March 11, the Cook Political Report, a national ratings outlet, shifted the 2026 governor’s race further in favor of Shapiro, changing the rating from “likely Democratic” to “solid Democratic.”
“Shapiro has an approval rating consistently around 60%, a gargantuan cash-on-hand advantage and a decisive polling lead over GOP state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, making it almost impossible to see him coming up short in his quest for a second term,” the Cook Political Report writes as a summary of the race.
Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Greg Rothman dismissed the reliability of polls in an interview with The Center Square.
“Eighteen months ago, an actual poll was taken at the election and every Republican won,” Rothman said. “Trump won by one and a half points. Now, you’re telling me that 18 months later, our candidate is down 30 points?”
“That’s ridiculous. Those aren’t polls,” he continued. “Those are trying to dampen the spirit of Republicans. That’s what those polls are being used for. And they’re not real polls…I’ve been at this for a long time, and ultimately the election’s decided on Election Day.”
In addition to Trump and Garrity’s victories in 2024, Republicans Tim DeFoor, Dave McCormick, and Dave Sunday won their respective races for statewide office in Pennsylvania. Excluding judicial elections, the last Democrat to win a statewide race in Pennsylvania was Shapiro in 2022.
Rothman also told The Center Square that Pennsylvania has a history of upsets, specifically citing the victories of Harris Wofford defeating Dick Thornburgh in 1991 for U.S. Senate, Rick Santorum unseating Wofford in 1994, plus the recent example of Dave McCormick’s victory over three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey.
It wouldn’t be the first time Garrity unseated an incumbent Democrat. Her rise to statewide office in 2020 came after she defeated Treasurer Joe Torsella by roughly 53,000 votes – the first Republican to do so in nearly three decades.
During Garrity’s successful bid for reelection in 2024, she broke a Pennsylvania record for most votes received in a statewide election, which was previously held by Shapiro in his 2022 gubernatorial victory.
And this time, Garrity has the support of President Donald Trump, who appeared with her at a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser in Palm Beach, Fla., on March 30. Calling herself a “strong ally,” Garrity touted that hers was among the first campaigns the president endorsed this year.
While Trump won Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes in 2024 over Vice President Kamala Harris, recent polling shows that a majority in the state disapprove of his job performance.
Democrats, including Shapiro, say this association hurts Garrity more than it helps.
“As Governor, Josh Shapiro has brought people together to get stuff done for all Pennsylvanians and protect our freedoms and our democracy,” Shapiro’s campaign wrote in a press release, promoting upcoming events. “Whether it’s investing in our schools and small businesses, supporting Pennsylvania law enforcement and farmers, expanding economic opportunity, or standing up to Donald Trump’s chaos, cruelty, and corruption – Governor Shapiro is fighting for Pennsylvania families and continuing to move our Commonwealth forward.”
Rothman disagrees. He sees Trump as an asset for Garrity this November, saying that it’s all “about turnout” and that the president brings people to the polls.
“We need him here. We need him to come here,” Rothman told The Center Square. “We need him to be talking more about Stacy and Jason.”
“We know he’s busy trying to save the free world and put men back in space, but yes, I think he will help her,” he added.
Rothman said he “100%” expects Trump to campaign for the ticket this year and cited U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson traveling to Pennsylvania this week to boost Republican incumbents in battleground congressional districts.
“They know how important Pennsylvania is,” Rothman said. “The most important state in the country, again.”
On Saturday, Shapiro hit the campaign trail in north-central Pennsylvania, a region that has historically supported Republican candidates.
