(The Center Square) – As states across the mid-Atlantic adopt aggressive goals for renewable energy generation, most look to Pennsylvania’s natural gas and nuclear plants to back them up.
But when there’s not enough power to go around, no amount of generation in the commonwealth will be enough to prevent rolling blackouts or drastic bill hikes.
That’s what worries critics of Gov. Josh Shapiro’s decarbonization plans. Although he’s abandoned the state’s entry into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, he’s instead pushed Pennsylvania-specific versions of it, including quadrupling the amount of energy derived from solar and wind power over the next decade.
Regulators with the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission said Thursday that fears about affordability are warranted, though hopefully shortsighted.
“I think it’s fair to say that ratepayers are going to pay more when you’re increasing the percentages and you are prescribing what the increase is as opposed to allowing the market to determine it,” said Chairman Stephen DeFrank during a House Appropriations Committee on Thursday. “I will say, however the farther out you look it will likely stabilize because, like I’m saying, as we’re putting all of our eggs into one basket and ignoring resource diversity, we are going to be tied to that resource.”
Shapiro’s energy programs, called the Pennsylvania Reliable Energy Sustainability Standard and the Pennsylvania Climate Emissions Reduction Act, PRESS and PACER for short, broaden the mix of energy providers so that the power grid isn’t sustained primarily by natural gas, coal and nuclear plants.
While doing so will reduce harmful emissions, the temperamental nature of solar panels and wind turbines – as well as the challenge of decommissioning the equipment affordably – leaves many questions about how growing energy demands will be met.
It’s complicated by the fact that most of Pennsylvania’s fellow states covered by the regional power grid operator, PJM, have already adopted aggressive clean energy targets that lean on the commonwealth as the back-up for rainy days, winter months, data center usage and growing population.
“This lighting plan is going to be a lightning bolt to our grid,” said Rep. Josh Kail, R-Beaver. “We are playing politics with people’s light switches.”
Sen. Gene Yaw, R-Williamsport, has been a leading voice against policies that incentivize too much renewable energy too fast.
He pointed to what he described as 20 years of underinvestment in generation and transmission. Supply remained largely flat thanks to efficiency gains – such as better appliances and heating systems – which helped keep demand manageable. Now, he said, the demand surge from electric vehicles and data centers has created the “perfect storm.”
In addition, gas-fired plants are retiring faster than new generation is coming online, while vast numbers of renewable energy projects remain stuck in the interconnection queue and not getting built. New technologies like battery storage show promise, Yaw added, but aren’t yet developed at scale.
He stressed he doesn’t completely blame PJM. While not perfect, he said, they have done a pretty good job acting as an “air traffic controller” for the grid, directing the flow of power across the region from more than 1,400 generators.
Even so, he said there is no question we need more generation capacity – especially “dispatchable” power that’s available 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.
For Pennsylvania, Yaw said it would be “the greatest thing ever” to figure out how to use coal efficiently while keeping emissions down, but he believes the quickest path to added capacity is new gas-fired generation.
DeFrank, when pressed about recent coal plant retirements, as well as considerations to reopen them, agreed that the more, the better.
“I think we should put as many watts on the grid as we possibly can, so if that means keeping them on, then absolutely,” he said.
Lauren Jessop contributed to this report.
