(The Center Square) — Former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage has a narrow lead over incumbent Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District race, according to a new independent poll.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, released Thursday, shows LePage leading Golden among likely voters in the sprawling congressional district, which is one of the most competitive in the nation and was carried twice by Republican President Donald Trump.
Pollsters found only 26% of voters in Golden’s district believes that he deserves to be reelected with 57% saying he doesn’t deserve another term. Among Democrats, only 51% said they believe he should be reelected.
Golden was elected to a fourth term in last year’s election, after narrowly beating Republican challenger Austin Theriault in a ranked-choice tabulation. He is considered vulnerable in the right-leaning congressional district and recently drew a primary challenger, Maine State Auditor Matthew Dunlap, who is vowing to “take a harder line” against President Trump’s policies and legislative agenda.
The UNH poll found that Mainers are largely divided about Dunlap’s primary challenge against Golden, with only 29% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him. About 40% that they don’t know enough about Dunlap to say whether they would vote for him, according to the poll.
Meanwhile, political newcomer and oyster farmer Graham Platner leads Gov. Janet Mills in the race for the 2026 Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican who is seeking a sixth term.
Pollsters found Platner with 58% to Mills 24% and about 14% of likely voters still undecided. Mills, 77, a two-term governor and former attorney general, jumped into the race last week. She is prevented from seeking another term.
A key reason for Mills’ lackluster support among likely Democratic primary voters is her increasing unpopularity as governor, pollsters suggested. About 55% of Maine residents said they disapprove of Mills’ handling of the job while 43% approved, which pollsters said is “significantly” lower than her previous rankings.
Collins holds a “commanding” lead over her Republican challengers — Carmen Calabrese and Dan Smeriglio — according to the poll, which found that if the primary were held today 66% would support the incumbent senator.
Both Maine races are also being closely watched by political observers as Democrats push to retake the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives in the midterms. Republicans view the races as an opportunity to widen their control of Congress and win other down-ballot races in next year’s midterm elections.
Pollsters also asked respondents for their views on several Maine referendums set for the Nov. 4 ballot, including a proposal that would require voters to show photo identification to cast ballots in federal, state and local elections. Respondents were divided over the ballot question, with 49% saying they plan to vote no and 48% saying they plan to vote yes, according to the poll.
A proposal to create a “red flag” law that would allow law enforcement to see weapons belonging to people deemed a threat to themselves or others was supported by only 38% of those who responded, with 40% saying they plan to vote no on the referendum. Another 22% were undecided, pollsters found.
The UNH poll of 1,094 Maine residents, conducted between Oct. 16-21, has a 3.0% margin of error.
