(The Center Square) – With just 69 days to go until Nov. 5, Vice President Kamala Harris still has a chance to win the highly-coveted North Carolina.
This is according to a new Elon University Poll, which looked at how voters in the state view the presidential and gubernatorial elections.
The poll was conducted from Aug. 2-9, meaning it was after Harris had been officially nominated to replace President Joe Biden on the ticket, but before the Democratic National Convention. The margin of error is +/-3.86%.
North Carolina has long been considered a swing state, even though only two Republican presidential candidates have lost in the last 60 years: Gerald Ford to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and John McCain to Barack Obama in 2008.
Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said the findings solidify North Carolina’s swing state status despite its somewhat predictable nature.
“Having been won by Republican presidential candidates for three elections in a row, North Carolina is sometimes called into question as a swing state,” he said. “Our data show that North Carolina’s electoral votes remain up for grabs by either party, but winning those votes will involve navigating a divided, complex and engaged electorate.”
The poll found that former President Donald Trump only had a 2% higher favorability rating than Harris, despite winning the state in 2016 and 2020.
While half of the respondents overall said they viewed both candidates unfavorably, registered independents were more likely to prefer Trump, even if it was only somewhat.
The poll found that the economy is the key issue for voters going into the election, which could help Trump. Two-thirds of those polled said the Biden administration is responsible for the current state of the economy.
Republicans (80%) were much more likely to say that their personal financial situation has gotten worse since President Biden took office, compared with only 17% of Democrats.
Over three-quarters of respondents also said inflation has negatively affected their family over the past six months.
The poll also asked about the possibility of election violence and how “fair and accurate” voters think the election will be.
Ninety percent said they are concerned about election-related violence breaking out after the polls close, with Democrats being more concerned than Republicans.
While only 48% of voters said they believe the election nationwide will be fair and accurate, 59% said they were confident in the North Carolina elections.
Husser said these numbers should be concerning, especially looking at it in terms of only 15% of voters saying that they would be “very willing” to compromise.
“The conundrum is that, despite voters seemingly recognizing this as a problem related to polarization, very few voters report being very willing to compromise on their issues in exchange for less divisiveness,” he said.
While this poll did not ask how the respondents planned to vote, other polls have Harris and Trump tied.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of August’s polls has Trump leading by just 0.3%, with Trump at 45.8% and Harris at 45.5%.
