(The Center Square) — Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is slightly ahead of Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a potential gubernatorial race, according to a new poll by a conservative think-tank.
The Manhattan Institute poll, which surveyed 900 likely New York voters, showed 43% supporting Stefanik and 42% for Hochul — a “statistical tie” that the group says gives the GOP lawmaker a slight edge over her democratic rival in a possible race between them. Nine percent of those surveyed said they back someone else, while 7% said they are “not sure,” pollsters said.
Meanwhile, Stefanik would beat Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado, a Democrat who is mounting a primary challenge to Hochul, by six points (43%-37%) in a general election matchup, pollsters found.
Pollsters found that partisan loyalty remains strong across the state’s and New York City’s electorate, with most voters staying aligned with their party regardless of the Democratic nominee. About 70% of Hochul supporters also back Delgado, while only 3% of Democrats cross over to Stefanik, the poll found.
Pollsters suggested that those partisan divisions and Hochul’s paltry numbers may have been impacted by her decision to endorse New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist whose controversial left-wing proposals include free college and bus service and government run grocery stores.
“The contrast between Hochul’s precarious standing and Mamdani’s near-assured victory underscores New York’s split political identity — a deep-blue city within a state that appears increasingly competitive,” they said.
Stefanik, a six-term lawmaker and Trump loyalist who represents New York’s 21st District, is widely expected to challenge Hochul in next year’s election.
Her office agreed with pollsters’ suggestions about the impact of Mamdani on New York Democrats, saying Hocuhul “chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the Defund the Police, tax hiking, raging Antisemite Socialist Zohran Mamdani who will destroy New York.”
“Kathy Hochul and single party Democrat rule have failed New York making it the most unaffordable state in the country with the highest taxes, energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills making it unaffordable to raise a family, work, and start a business,” the statement said. “New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new common sense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule.”
The poll is a sharp contrast to a Siena College survey released a month ago, which showed Hochul ahead of Stefanik by 25 points, 52-27%, in a potential gubernatorial matchup, up from 20 points in a previous survey.
A Hochul campaign spokesperson dismissed the Manhattan Institute’s poll and took aim at Stefanik for backing President Donald Trump’s divisive policies that have negatively impacted New Yorkers.
“You’ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik: when her own polls don’t reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors – like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer – to repeat her lies,” Hochul’s campaign said in a statement. “Unfortunately for her, New Yorkers aren’t interested in letting an unhinged Trump enabler anywhere near the Governor’s mansion.”
