(The Center Square) – A week before the General Election, persistent polling averages favoring the Democratic candidate in Michigan’s U.S. Senate have split race watchers on whether the contest is a tossup or leaning Democratic.
RealClearPolitics polling averages show Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin is 2.6 percentage points ahead of her Republican opponent Mike Rogers as of Tuesday, up from her 2.2 point lead in late June.
The Hill, taking the average of 80 polls, reports a similar finding with Slotkin leading by 2.7 points, although this is down from her 3.4 point lead The Hill averaged in June.
The Hill also changed its rating of the race from leaning Democratic to a tossup on Tuesday, with its election forecast model predicting Slotkin has a 65% chance of winning Michigan.
Cook Political Report maintains its rating of the race as a tossup, while InsideElections says it tilts Democratic.
FiveThirtyEight polling averages present Slotkin as having the largest advantage over Rogers, reporting a 3.5 point lead as of Tuesday based on poll averages that account for recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
The seat is currently held by Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is not running for reelection. Republicans have targeted the seat in their hopes to flip it and take back the Senate.
