One of America’s top polling experts shared his “gut” prediction on who will win the 2024 presidential election, joining other notables who have shared different predictions for the tight race.
With less than two weeks before voters decide between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, polling guru Nate Sliver said he thinks Trump will win, but with a caveat.
“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” Silver wrote in a New York Times opinion piece. “But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut – including mine.”
The race is a toss up, he said.
“Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” he wrote. “And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted every presidential contest since 1984, also announced his pick for the winner: Harris. He told NewsNation that his “The Keys to the White House,” the name of his prediction system for determining the outcome of elections, suggests Harris will win the presidency. Lichtman’s model is designed to determine who will win the popular vote. He predicted Trump would win in 2016 even though Trump didn’t carry the popular vote.
James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist, also predicted a win for Harris.
“America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States,” he wrote in a New York Times opinion piece. “Of this, I am certain.”
Silver said that predictions aside, the contest will be tight.
“It remains hard to know what to expect, other than the fact that this is a really close race,” he wrote on his site, The Silver Bulletin.
