(The Center Square) – Campaign spending in Alabama elections this fall could top $43 million, a new report says.
The Political Projections Report was released on Monday by advertising tracking company AdImpact and it predicts that nationally, campaign spending could hit a new high of $10.69 billion, up from its previous prediction of $10.2 billion. The previous high was in the 2019-20 cycle, when spending topped $9.02 billion.
There are several reasons why Alabama didn’t figure prominently as a repository for campaign spending.
Alabama will almost certainly support former President Donald Trump in November after 62% of voters cast ballots for him in 2016 and 2020.
Also, most of Alabama’s House seats are unlikely to flip in this election cycle. One race in a newly redrawn district might get some campaign cash as Democrats look to gain a seat in the House of Representatives in the 2nd Congressional District.
Former Alabama Forestry Commission member Caroleene Dobson, a Republican, will battle Democrat and former Justice Department official Shomari Figures on Nov. 5.
Figures, the son of a state senator, will have a built-in advantage thanks to the redrawn, 49% Black district and better fundraising. According to the latest data from the Federal Election Commission, the Mobile Democrat has raised more than $390,000, more than his Republican foe (nearly $290,000).
Dobson did loan herself nearly $1 million for her campaign.
The 2nd District was redrawn after several attempts by the Legislature after a federal court decision issued an order requiring the creation of a new majority Black congressional district.
Most of the $10.69 billion predicted by the report will be spent in battleground states, which include Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona.
Alabama isn’t alone for low spending this election cycle amongst its neighbors. The report predicts $31 million in spending for Mississippi and $30 million for Tennessee.
That contrasts with campaign finance predictions for Florida ($464 million) and Georgia ($373 million). While Florida isn’t a battleground state, ballot initiatives concerning abortion and marijuana will likely draw large donations.
