(The Center Square) – Michigan ranks among the nation’s biggest losers in interstate migration, with residents continuing to leave at a steady pace.
This is according to a new analysis from the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, which found Michigan ranked 43rd-worst nationally for net interstate migration in 2022, with the state losing a resident every 1 hour and 2 minutes on average.
The report, which used Internal Revenue Service migration data, also found Michigan struggling to retain key taxpayer demographics.
The state ranked 38th worst nationally for residents earning more than $200,000 and 45th for net migration among residents under age 35, indicating losses among both higher earners and younger workers.
Looking at longer-term trends, Michigan ranked 41st nationally for net change in residents from interstate migration between 2013 and 2022.
Researchers said the findings reflect a broader national shift, with taxpayers continuing to move from higher-tax states to lower-tax states.
“Taxpayers are fleeing high-tax states and heading to low-tax ones,” the report stated.
In 2022, a taxpayer moved to Texas or Florida roughly every four and a half minutes, while one left California about every two and a half minutes.
Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee ranked as the top destinations for migrants, while California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts saw the largest losses.
The report emphasized that migration data offers a clear signal of taxpayer preferences.
“Polls may miss the mark,” the report stated. “Elections can swing on the personality and character of the candidates, but taxpayers voting with their feet are usually making a financial decision.”
It also points to tax policy as the most consistent driver of those decisions, while acknowledging other factors such as housing, jobs and family ties.
“At the macro level, the single best predictor of which states will gain new residents from interstate migration and which states will lose them is tax policy,” the report added.
The report highlights that migration trends are especially pronounced among higher-income households. Florida gained more than 50,000 residents earning over $200,000 in 2022, far more than any other state, while Texas also saw significant gains.
Younger Americans are also contributing to the shift, though the report notes their ongoing mobility can make trends harder to interpret.
“Bringing in young people is not much good if many of them head for the exits once they are ready to truly settle down,” the report stated.
Those population shifts carry fiscal consequences. The report estimates Michigan’s losses will result in a roughly $113 million reduction in state and local tax revenue in 2026. The cumulative impact between 2013 and 2022 is estimated at $755 million.
“A steady loss of taxpayers to other states can pose a real problem to a state’s budget over the long term,” the report warns. “After all, a taxpayer who moves from California to Florida in 2013 does not merely stop paying taxes to California in 2013 — their tax dollars go to Florida for every subsequent year that they stay in Florida. This compounding effect can make the long-term impact of migration quite devastating (or, in the winners’ case, enriching) to a state’s budget.”
More-recent census data showed some shift in positive population growth, making it likely Michigan will hold onto all 13 of its Electoral College votes when congressional seats are reapportioned in 2030. This is according to previous reporting by The Center Square.
In response to the NTUF report, Michigan Forward, a conservative advocacy group, placed blame on Democratic leadership in the state, particularly Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
“When people are looking for a place to live, work, and raise a family, they’re not choosing Michigan, and Gretchen Whitmer has no one to blame but herself,” said Gabe Butzke, a spokesperson for the group. “She prevented income tax relief, vetoed education scholarships, and passed a radical Green New Deal that will raise the average Michigan resident’s energy bill by $2,700 a year, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise when people look for somewhere else to live.”
Whitmer, who has promoted policies aimed at economic growth and population retention throughout her time as governor, recently said she would give herself an “A” grade for her performance in making Michigan a place people want to live and work.
