(The Center Square) – Murders have dropped 31.9% and violent crime fell 13% in areas participating in the Ceasefire Virginia program between 2023 to 2024, according to a new report from Virginia Commonwealth University.
The preliminary report was prepared by VCU’s Center for Public Policy for the Office of the Attorney General. The program launched in October 2022 and now operates in 13 localities across the commonwealth.
Researchers found homicides decreased 33.49% in Ceasefire localities compared to a 21.22% statewide decrease between 2023 and 2024. Violent crimes, including homicide, aggravated assault and robbery, dropped 9.6% overall in Ceasefire areas during the same time.
The report said reducing violent crime by 1% could save more than $89 million annually. It estimated that for every $1 invested in the Ceasefire Virginia campaign, the commonwealth saved about $3.60 overall, or $2.22 per household.
Firearm-related violent crimes fell 10% in Ceasefire Virginia cities between 2023 and 2024, while statewide firearm-related violent crimes declined 11.9%. Ceasefire localities accounted for nearly 40% of the overall reduction in firearm violence across Virginia, according to the report.
The report states that the economic cost of all crime reported in Virginia in 2024 is approximately $8.9 billion per year, including $6.1 billion from violent crime. Richmond and Norfolk accounted for the highest violent-crime costs at $643 million and $464 million.
Technology was a key part of the effort. Ballistics IQ and Flock Safety automated license plate readers helped investigators identify connections between cases faster, according to VCU. The report also states that 67% of Virginians support restrictions on law enforcement’s use of automated license plate readers.
Community engagement was another component. Ceasefire Virginia supported youth programs such as Virginia Rules camps, hospital-based violence intervention initiatives and public education efforts.
The Ceasefire Virginia media campaign generated 56.8 million impressions at a cost of five cents per impression, which researchers said was lower than similar programs in other states.
The report’s findings cover data through 2024, with a full evaluation expected in November 2025.
Researchers said the final report will include expanded analyses, including a detailed review of media campaign activities in each Ceasefire locality.
It will also include an evaluation of automated license plate reader use, additional trend analysis of Virginia State Police projects and anti-retaliatory messaging, and a law enforcement focus group summary.
The report also recommends continuing to build community perceptions of safety. It calls for more funding and training for law enforcement equipment and technology, as well as expanding recruitment and retention efforts.
