(The Center Square) — None of Virginia’s 15 four-year public colleges and universities are currently in danger of shuttering, though some have risk factors that “should be monitored in coming years,” according to a recently released report by the commonwealth’s legislative watchdog agency.
Much of what’s happening with higher education in Virginia mirrors national trends, according to the Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission. Enrollment at two-year colleges has declined over the past decade, as has enrollment at lesser-known and less selective four-year institutions.
Large, “flagship,” and more selective schools have generally gained enrollment over the same time. Virginia Tech, George Mason University, James Madison University, the University of Virginia and Norfolk State University all grew in the past 10 years, with the first five averaging growth of more than 18% (NSU grew by just 1%).
All other commonwealth universities have seen a decrease in enrollment, with the smallest decline occurring at Virginia Commonwealth University (5%) and the greatest happening at Radford University (29%) and the University of Mary Washington (20%).
However, universities facing obstacles now might need to be particularly vigilant in finding solutions because the U.S. Department of Education has predicted more of a decline in higher education enrollment starting in 2025, according to the commission’s report.
Demographically, the college-age population is shrinking.
“Birth rates, both nationally and in Virginia, peaked in 2007 but subsequently declined following the Great Recession. The number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 and decline at least through 2032,” according to the report.
However, national and state studies have also shown that interest in higher education might be waning as the cost continues to rise and viable career options for those without a college degree continue to expand.
“Only 38 percent of Virginians surveyed indicated the cost of college is ‘worth it,’ down from 47 percent just one year prior,” the report reads, citing a VCU survey, and “after being flat for the prior 40 years, wages for workers with a high school degree rose 14 percent between 2014 and 2023.”
Enrollment isn’t the only sign of institutional viability, however. The commission evaluated schools according to eight student, institutional and financial risk factors: graduation rate, enrollment levels, student retention, pricing power, facility age or condition, financial ratios, state funds per student and endowment. Based on these factors, eight of Virginia’s 15 four-year colleges ranked as having “very low viability risk,” and seven had low or some viability risk.
The health of the seven colleges with some risk should be monitored more closely in coming years, as they would likely suffer most in the case of the expected enrollment decline predicted by the department.
