High school graduation rates have increased while student achievement across K-12 public schools has declined, raising concerns among education experts about academic standards and long-term readiness.
Nationwide, only about one-third of students meet proficiency benchmarks in reading, the National Assessment Governing Board reported.
Since 2019, reading scores for fourth and eighth grade students have dropped by an average of five points, according to data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress.
While fourth-grade math scores have shown slight improvement since 2022, they remained three points below pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
Twelfth-grade reading scores declined by three points since 2019, with just 35% of students performing at or above the proficient level, according to NAEP data.
At the same time, graduation rates have steadily increased. The U.S. average graduation rate rose from 80% in the 2011–12 school year to 87% in 2021–22.
State-level data for the 2023–24 academic year show graduation rates ranging from about 76% to 93%, based on reports by reports by various state education departments, but many states are expected to see declines in graduate counts by 2041.
Education experts question whether higher graduation rates reflect genuine academic progress.
“Graduation rates have become essentially meaningless. I wouldn’t put too much stock in recent improvements,” Aaron Smith, director of education reform at the Reason Foundation, told The Center Square.
Smith attributed expected declines in future graduation numbers to falling enrollment, noting that public schools have lost roughly 1.2 million students in recent years. He cited declining birth rates and growing dissatisfaction with public education as contributing factors.
He also criticized what he described as schools advancing students without ensuring mastery of material, pointing to the use of short-term “credit recovery” programs that allow students to make up failed coursework quickly.
“Students fail their classes for several months but breeze through one or two weeks of credit recovery, having learned next to nothing,” Smith said.
Lance Izumi, senior director of education studies at Pasadena-based Pacific Research Institute, told The Center Square that easing standards and grade inflation have weakened accountability.
Izumi noted California eliminated its high school exit exam, a requirement once mandatory for graduation.
The California High School Exit Exam, first implemented for the class of 2004, was suspended in 2015 and permanently eliminated in 2017. Students who meet other requirements can now graduate without passing the exam.
“We are not requiring kids to adhere to rigorous standards of academic excellence,” Izumi told The Center Square. “We’re basically passing these kids along so that they simply get the piece of paper and keep them in school.”
Funding structures may also play a role. Public school districts typically receive funding based on student attendance, creating incentives to keep students enrolled and progressing toward graduation, Izumi noted.
“I think their [school districts] philosophy is that if they make things easier for kids, they won’t drop out,” Izumi said. “Schools will continue to get the money.”
Izumi argued that lowering grading standards and graduation requirements undermines educational quality.
Izumi advocates for increased competition through school choice programs, including education savings accounts that allow families to use public funds for private schooling or alternative education services.
Izumi highlighted that such measures could push districts to improve.
“The only way the school districts are going to feel incentivized to change their failing ways is by having competition from outside,” Izumi said.
