Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied in new polling released Saturday.
The poll of 1,400 likely voters from North Star Opinion Research included 200 respondents in each of seven swing states and shows Harris, who secured enough delegates Friday to claim the Democratic nomination for president, with a 47% to 46% lead over Trump, the Republican nominee, in a head-to-head matchup, which is within the poll’s +/- 2.62% margin of error.
In the swing states, Trump has an advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada; Harris in North Carolina and Wisconsin; and Pennsylvania is tied.
“If we allocate those electoral votes, we get Trump at 267, Harris at 252 with Pennsylvania in play,” North Star pollster Jon McHenry said.
To win the election, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes.
With third party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent), Chase Oliver (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) included as options, Harris maintained the 1 point advantage over Trump, 42% to 41%. Kennedy garnered 8% support; Stein 2%; and Oliver 1%.
On issues that voters say are most important to them ahead of November’s election, a majority of respondents sided with those that favor Trump.
When asked if they were better off when Trump was president, or with Joe Biden as president and Harris as vice president, 51% said Trump, 40% said Biden-Harris, and 9% said they don’t know. A plurality of independents, 45% to 22%, say they were better off under Trump.
When asked how well Bidenomics has worked for them, 54% said either not too well (14%) or not at all (40%) while 42% said very well (15%) or somewhat well (27%).
“Beyond the ballot, … there is a pretty compelling story to tell on the issues – especially the economy and immigration – working in Trump’s favor,” McHenry said.
“Voters say Bidenomics is not working for middle-class families in their state by a 54 to 42 percent margin, and say they were better off when Donald Trump was President by a 51 to 40 percent margin,” he said. “Nearly two-thirds say the Biden-Harris Administration bears at least some of the blame for rising food costs (64 percent, including 44 percent who say a great deal).”
On Harris’ performance as border czar under Biden, a solid majority – 58% – rated the vice president as either somewhat weak (11%) or very weak (47%) while just 31% responded she was somewhat strong (23%) or very strong (8%). About 12% said they did not know.
Responses were weighted to reflect a 1,000 respondent sample size in proportion to each state’s electoral votes.
